BTC Price analysis

Bitcoin derivatives favor further BTC price rally toward $30K

Bitcoin’s price might have held near $28,000, but the absence of shorts using margin and futures markers is a bullish indicator.

Despite regulatory pressure and worsening macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated bullishness, holding near $28,000 for the past week. Furthermore, professional traders have maintained leveraged long positions on margin and in futures markets, indicating strength.

On the regulatory front, on April 4, the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce agreed to move forward and remove incentives for miners operating within the state’s regulatory environment. If passed, Senate Bill 1751 would cap compensation for load reductions on Texas’ power grid during emergencies.

Risk of recession grows against rate hikes

The risk of a recession in the United States grew after applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending March 25 were revised to 246,000, up 48,000 from the initial report.

Furthermore, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated on April 6 that the economies of the U.S. and Europe should continue to struggle as higher interest rates weigh on demand.

Regarding the banking crisis, Georgieva advised central banks to keep raising interest rates, adding, “Concerns remain about vulnerabilities that may be hidden, not just at banks but also non-banks — now is not the time for complacency.“

On the other hand, on April 6, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard downplayed concerns about the impact of financial stress on the economy. Bullard stated that the Fed’s reaction to the banking sector’s weakness was “swift and appropriate,” and that “monetary policy can continue to put downward pressure on inflation.“

Let’s look at derivatives’ metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

BTC price derivatives reflect traders’ neutral sentiment

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because they allow investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins and buying Bitcoin. On the other hand, borrowers of Bitcoin can only take short bets against BTC/USD.

*OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX*

The chart above shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio has remained near 28x in favor of BTC longs over the last week. If those whales and market makers had perceived increased risks of a price correction, they would have borrowed Bitcoin for shorting, causing the indicator to fall below 20x.

The top traders’ long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets. Analysts can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish by aggregating the positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts.

Because there are some methodological differences between different exchanges, viewers should focus on changes rather than absolute figures.

*Exchange’s top traders’ long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Between April 1 and April 7, the top traders’ long-to-short ratio at Binance slightly declined from 1.17 to 1.09. Meanwhile, at the Huobi exchange, the top traders’ long-to-short ratio has stood near 1.0 since March 18. More precisely, the ratio slid from 1.00 on April 1 to 0.95 on April 7, thus relatively balanced between longs and shorts.

Lastly, OKX whales presented a very different pattern as the indicator declined from 1.25 on April 3 to a 0.69 low on April 5, heavily favoring net shorts. Those traders reverted the trend, aggressively buying Bitcoin using leverage for the past two days as the long-to-short ratio returned to 0.97.

Absence of Bitcoin shorts is a bullish indicator

In essence, both the Bitcoin margin and futures markets are currently neutral, which should be interpreted positively given that the Bitcoin price rose 41.5% between March 10 and March 20, holding the $28,000 level.

Given the enormous regulatory uncertainty caused by the SEC’s Wells notice against Coinbase on March 22, the absence of shorts using margin and futures markets currently favors further price appreciation.

Unless the economic crisis unfolds faster than expected, inflation will remain a top concern for investors, and Bitcoin inflows should be enough to keep $28,000 as a resistance level.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin copying ‘familiar’ price trend in 2023, two more metrics show

The SLRV Ribbons and Bitcoin Yardstick tools both reveal copycat behavior from 2019 when it comes to Bitcoin price recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the road to a new bull market and should deliver serious returns in the process, fresh analysis reveals

In a tweet on April 2, Charles Edwards, founder of Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, flagged a “familiar” bull signal on the SLRV Ribbons metric.

Edwards: SLRV beginning “new trend”

SLRV Ribbons is a tool for measuring potential Bitcoin profitability. Put forward by Capriole in 2022, it is based on the Short-to-Long-term Realized Value (SLRV) Ratio from well-known analyst David Puell.

The SLRV Ratio takes the percentage of the BTC supply active in the last 24 hours and compares it to that last active 6-12 months ago. The result shows how comparatively active short-term supply and long-term supply are at a given point.

From this, an investor can gain an insight into both sentiment and likely price trajectory, but over time, such supply values may change, Edwards argues.

SLRV Ribbons attempts to address this by analyzing the interplay between two moving averages. When its short-term 30-day MA crosses over the long-term 150-day MA, Bitcoin is at the start of a bullish phase.

The metric “is about as simple as gets” when it comes to reliable Bitcoin analytics tools, Edwards explained in an introductory blog post, and is currently repeating classic bullish behavior with a crossover taking place in early 2023.

“A new trend in SLRV ribbons, and it looks familiar,” he summarized.

*Bitcoin SLRV Ribbons annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter*

While relatively new, Edwards added that SLRV Ribbons had been backtested to show both its reliability and capability to improve BTC investment returns versus buying and holding.

Bitcoin is still “cheap”

SLRV is not the only Bitcoin metric giving Edwards a sense of deja vu this month.

The Bitcoin Yardstick, previously covered by Cointelegraph, reveals a recovery in Bitcoin market cap versus hash rate but still classes BTC as “cheap” at current prices.

“The Bitcoin Yardstick is painting a very familiar signature to the 2019 lows,” he commented on March 31.

After exiting the “cheap” zone early that year, BTC/USD then only saw one brief return during the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.

*Bitcoin Yardstick chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin copying ‘familiar’ price trend in 2023, two more metrics show

The SLRV Ribbons and Bitcoin Yardstick tools both reveal copycat behavior from 2019 when it comes to Bitcoin price recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the road to a new bull market and should deliver serious returns in the process, fresh analysis reveals.

In a tweet on April 2, Charles Edwards, founder of Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, flagged a “familiar” bull signal on the SLRV Ribbons metric.

Edwards: SLRV beginning “new trend”

The SLRV Ratio takes the percentage of the BTC supply active in the last 24 hours and compares it to that last active six to 12 months ago. The result shows how comparatively active short-term supply and long-term supply are at a given point.

From this, an investor can gain an insight into both sentiment and likely price trajectory, but over time, such supply values may change, Edwards argues.

“A new trend in SLRV ribbons, and it looks familiar,” he summarized.

While relatively new, Edwards added that SLRV Ribbons had been backtested to show both its reliability and capability to improve BTC investment returns versus buying and holding.

Bitcoin is still “cheap”

SLRV is not the only Bitcoin metric giving Edwards a sense of deja vu this month.

The Bitcoin Yardstick, previously covered by Cointelegraph, reveals a recovery in Bitcoin market cap versus hash rate but still classifies BTC as “cheap” at current prices.

“The Bitcoin Yardstick is painting a very familiar signature to the 2019 lows,” Edwards commented on March 31.

After exiting the “cheap” zone early that year, BTC/USD then only saw one brief return during the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

These 5 cryptocurrencies may continue to surprise to the upside

Bitcoin, ETH, BNB, STX, and IMX remain strong on the charts, increasing the likelihood of more gains in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to close the week with gains of more than 23%. The banking crisis in the United States and Europe seems to have boosted buying in Bitcoin, indicating that the leading cryptocurrency is behaving as a safe haven asset in the near term.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 21 and 22. The failure of three banks in the U.S. has increased hopes that the Fed will not hike rates at the meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 38% probability of a pause and a 62% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike on March 22.

*Crypto market data daily view. Source:* *Coin360*

Analysts are divided on the consequences of the current crisis on the economy. Former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan believes that the U.S. will enter a period of hyperinflation, while pseudonymous Twitter user James Medlock believes otherwise. Srinivasan has bet $2 million with Medlock and another person that Bitcoin’s price will reach $1 million by June 17.

Although anything is possible in crypto markets, traders should be prudent in their trading and not get carried away with lofty targets.

Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and altcoins that are showing signs of the resumption of the up-move after a minor correction.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin soared above the $25,250 resistance on March 17, completing a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Usually, a breakout from a major setup returns to retest the breakout level but in some cases, the rally continues unabated.

*BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($24,088) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the overbought territory indicate advantage to buyers. If the price breaks above $28,000, the rally could pick up momentum and surge to $30,000 and thereafter to $32,000. This level is likely to witness strong selling by the bears.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the current level but rebounds off $25,250. That will also keep the bullish trend intact.

The positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price plummets below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the break above $25,250 may have been a bull trap. That could open the doors for a possible drop to the psychologically critical level of $20,000.

*BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USDT pair is facing profit-booking near $27,750 but a positive sign is that the pullback has been shallow. Buyers will try to drive the price above $28,000 and resume the uptrend. The pair could then climb toward $30,000.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and slumps below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the traders are rushing to the exit. That may pull the price down to the important support at $25,250 where the bulls and the bears may witness a tough battle.

Ether price analysis

The bulls conquered the $1,800 resistance on March 18 but could not sustain the higher levels. This shows that the bears are protecting the $1,800 level on Ether (ETH) with vigor.

*ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The critical support to watch on the downside is the zone between $1,680 and the 20-day EMA ($1,646). If the price rebounds off this zone, it will signal that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips.

Buyers will then again try to resume the uptrend and drive the price toward the next target objective at $2,000. This level may prove to be a major hurdle for the bulls to cross.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and slumps below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The ETH/USDT pair may then drop to $1,461.

*ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the pair bounced off the support at $1,743. This suggests that the bulls are buying the shallow dips and are not waiting for a deeper correction to get in. Buyers will next try to kick the price above $1,841. If this level is taken out, the pair may sprint toward $2,000.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and plunges below $1,743, short-term traders may book profits. The pair could then slide to the next important support at $1,680.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) rose above $338 on March 18, which invalidated the bearish H&S pattern. Usually, when a bearish pattern fails, it attracts buying from the bulls and short covering by the bears.

*BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The onus is on the bulls to keep the price above the immediate support at $318. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could first climb to $360 and thereafter dash toward $400. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($309) and the RSI near the overbought territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to yank the price back below the moving averages. This may not be an easy task but if completed successfully, the pair could tumble to $280.

*BNB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-EMA. The bears tried to halt the recovery at $338 but the bulls have pierced this resistance. Buyers will try to push the pair to $346. If this level gives way, the pair may continue its uptrend.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below 20-EMA, it will suggest that the short-term bulls may be booking profits on rallies. The pair could then slump to $318 where the buyers may step in to arrest the decline.

Stacks price analysis

Stacks (STX) rallied from $0.52 on March 10 to $1.29 on March 18, a sharp run within a short time. This suggests aggressive buying by the bulls.

*STX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The STX/USDT pair is witnessing profit-booking near $1.29 but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. This suggests that minor dips are being bought. Typically, in a strong uptrend, corrections last for one to three days.

If the price turns up and breaks above $1.29, the pair could resume its uptrend. The next stop on the upside is likely to be $1.55 and then $1.80.

The first sign of weakness on the downside will be a break and close below $1. That could clear the path for a drop to the 20-day EMA ($0.84).

*STX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair has corrected to the 20-EMA. This is an important level for the bulls to defend if they want to resume the up-move. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the pair could retest the overhead resistance at $1.29. If bulls overcome this barrier, the next leg of the uptrend may begin.

Conversely, if bears sink the price below the 20-EMA, the pair could slide to $1 and then to the 50-simple moving average. A deeper correction may delay the resumption of the up-move and keep the pair stuck inside a range for a few days.

Immutable price analysis

Immutable (IMX) skyrocketed above the overhead resistance of $1.30 on March 17, which completed the inverse H&S formation. This suggests the start of a potential new uptrend.

*IMX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, the price may retest the breakout level of $1.30. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that the bulls have flipped the level into support. Buyers will then try to kick the price above $1.59 and resume the uptrend. The IMX/USDT pair may then rally to $1.85 and later to $2. The pattern target of the reversal setup is $2.23.

This positive view could be negated in the near term if the price slips below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the break above $1.30 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to $0.80.

*IMX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair is witnessing a mild correction, which is finding support at the 20-EMA. Buyers are trying to clear the overhead hurdles at $1.59 but the bears are not relenting. If the price breaks below the 20-EMA, the pullback could reach $1.30.

Another possibility is that the price rebounds off the 20-EMA. That will indicate solid demand at lower levels and enhance the prospects of a break above $1.59. If that happens, the pair may resume its uptrend.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

BTC may need to dip to $19.3K to cool Bitcoin profit-taking — new data

Bitcoin short-term holders have been getting active, and their profitability may be underscoring current support and resistance levels, Glassnode reveals.

Bitcoin (BTC) would need to return below $20,000 to reset a key metric that covers speculative profit-taking, data shows.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode revealed that short-term holders (STHs) might be dictating BTC price resistance.

Profit-taking reinforces resistance levels

As BTC/USD climbed toward $25,000, STHs — those holding coins for 155 days or less — began seeing substanti.

This was captured by the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which compares the Bitcoin market cap to the value of coins moved on-chain.

“By comparing these two metrics, MVRV can be used to get a sense of when the price is above or below ‘fair value’ and to assess market profitability,” Glassnode explains in an accompanying guide.

MVRV passed 1.2 on the way to multimonth highs , coinciding with $23,800 appearing as an area of BTC price resistance.

As Glassnode writes, “the possibility of STHs taking profits tends to grow during periods where the average STH is 20%+ in money, returning a STH-MVRV above 1.2.”

“The recent rejection at the $23.8k level resonates with this structure, as the STH-MVRV hit a value of 1.2 before stalling,” it continued this week.

“Should the market return to $19.3k, it would bring STH-MVRV back to the value of 1.0, and indicate that spot prices have returned to the cost basis of this cohort of new buyers.”

*Bitcoin STH-MVRV estimation annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode*

$19,300 would thus form something of a magnetic target in terms of profitability and incentive not to sell for STHs.

As Cointelegraph reported, Glassnode is not alone in suggesting that $20,000 may not hold as support for BTC/USD, and a new local low could form beneath that line in the sand.

Bitcoin in “transitional phase”

Also in Glassnode’s crosshairs, meanwhile, is the long-term holder (LTH) cost basis and the activities of whales invested in Bitcoin since the end of its last bear market in late 2018.

The realized price of the so-called “old” supply — the price at which it last moved on aggregate — currently sits at $23,500, further reinforcing the area as a key battleground.

On the downside, Bitcoin’s combined realized price is $19,800, again feeding into the idea that this zone could ultimately form support.

“The Bitcoin economy often reacts not only to levels widely observed in traditional technical analysis but also the psychological cost basis levels of various investor cohorts printed on-chain. This takes place not only with respect to their realized price but also regarding the degree of profit and loss held within their supply,” Glassnode concluded.

“From this lens, the market currently resides in a transitional phase, bounded above by the Realized Price of Older Supply and also by the average Whale that has been active since the 2018 cycle bottom.”

BTC/USD traded at $22,400 at the time of writing on March 7, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin ‘millionaires’ increased 140% as BTC price crossed $20K — data

Bitcoin’s old 2017 all-time high is still a key level when it comes to long-term investment, data shows.

Bitcoin (BTC) millionaires are made when the BTC price crosses $20,000, data reveals.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, there are currently over 67,000 BTC wallets worth $1 million or more.

$20,000 makes 50-BTC hodlers happy

Bitcoin is famous for its relationship with the $20,000 price tag.

Prominent since becoming the all-time high of Bitcoin’s previous halving cycle, $20,000 is more than just a technical and psychological line in the sand.

As Glassnode now shows, when BTC/USD crosses that price point, many hodlers either gain or lose U.S. dollar millionaire status.

In late 2022, for example, when Bitcoin fell below $20,000 in the wake of the FTX scandal, “millionaire” wallet numbers plummeted like a stone overnight.

Fast forward to January 2023, and the opposite can be observed — as soon as BTC/USD reclaimed the $20,000 mark, those wallets reappeared en masse.

On Jan. 13, with BTC/USD at just under $20,000, there were around 27,000 wallets with a balance worth $1 million or more.

On Jan. 14, that wallet cohort had increased to 65,000, while the price traded just $1,000 higher. Many wallets, it appears, contain exactly 50 BTC.

For reference, at the time of Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high in November 2021, wallets worth $1 million or more totaled almost 113,000.

*Bitcoin wallets with a balance worth $1 million or more chart. Source: Glassnode*

Nearly 1 million “wholecoiners”

As Cointelegraph reported, hodlers’ fortunes have increased dramatically in the first months of 2023.

It is not only millionaires who have regained crucial financial buoyancy lost during the 2022 bear market — both long-term and short-term holders are knuckling down and even refusing to cash out.

Meanwhile, the number of so-called “wholecoiners” — wallets with a balance of at least 1 BTC — continues to track toward the 1 million mark for the first time in Bitcoin’s history.

As of Feb. 28, there are 982,726 such wallets, Glassnode shows.

*Bitcoin wallets with a balance of 1 BTC or more chart. Source: Glassnode*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin faces do-or-die weekly, monthly close with macro bull trend at stake

Bitcoin monthly RSI provides a window of hope as BTC bulls battle multiple long-term resistance trend lines in February.

Bitcoin (BTC) is leaving traders guessing as the bull market’s future depends on the last week of February.

In multiple tweets on Feb. 17, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged crucial resistance battles ongoing on BTC/USD across multiple timeframes.

Bitcoin price squares off with bear market downtrend

Bitcoin hit new six-month highs this week as the latest innings of its 2023 recovery kept the bull-bear debate raging.

After a consolidatory start to the month, February has become a reckoning point for Bitcoin price strength. Gains have been harder to cement than in January, when BTC/USD finished up nearly 40%.

For Rekt Capital, now is the time to pay attention — whether trading daily, weekly or even monthly timeframes.

The weekly chart perhaps represents the biggest struggle in the wake of the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is currently attempting to beat out an area of resistance it failed to conquer last August, so far without success.

“Ultimately, a Weekly Close above this key area is what BTC needs to achieve to break this confluent area of resistance to continue moving higher,” Rekt Capital wrote in part of an update on the weekly chart.

The picture is complicated thanks to two other major resistance trend lines lying overhead, coming in the form of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages (MAs).

As Cointelegraph reported, these have formed their first-ever “death cross” — a potential nail in the coffin for those hoping that a new bull market is beginning.

On monthly time frames, an equally tense situation is developing. Here, too, BTC/USD is “getting very close to breaking the Macro Downtrend,” Rekt Capital says.

The upcoming monthly close will be the deciding factor, as continued strength could see Bitcoin begin March outside a falling trend line in place since the November 2021 all-time highs.

While this would be a significant event, certain signs already suggest that it could become a reality. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), formerly at all-time lows, “has confirmed a new Bull Trend already.”

BTC price analysis: Whales targeting “bull market maxis”

Closer to home, intraday activity remains tantalizingly opaque as Bitcoin bulls cling to a portion of the week’s upside.

Two trips above $25,000 have nonetheless failed to result in a resistance-support flip, and at the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at around $24,500, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.

While Rekt Capital is celebrating a confirmed breakout, others remain fearful that the entire episode has been the result of manipulation by market whales.

Analyzing order book activity on Binance, monitoring resource Material Indicators appeared to be in no doubt about the spurious nature of current price “strength.“

Whales have been moving bid support moving higher, creating the illusion of a “bull market breakout.“

“We already have 2 rejections so if they get it, it’s a bonus,“ Material Indicators wrote about the twin moves above $25,000.

“IMO, the goal was to raise the distribution range and drop ask liquidity on to bull market maxis.“

An accompanying order book chart captured the action, along with whale volumes decreasing as spot price increased — a phenomenon Material Indicators recently dubbed “whalish divergence.“

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

13% of BTC supply returns to profit as Bitcoin sees ‘massive’ accumulation

The significance of Bitcoin’s weeks-long trading range is all the more apparent with BTC price at one-month highs, says analysis.

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are returning to profit as new data hints the BTC price has put in the “foundation” of a macro bottom.

The latest figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows a large swathe of the BTC supply heading “into the black” as BTC/USD passed $18,000.

Bitcoin establishes “massive” accumulation zone

After gaining nearly 5% in 24 hours, Bitcoin is back on bulls’ radar ahead of a crunch United States inflation data release.

What the impact will be remains uncertain, but on-chain analysis is eyeing a more important phenomenon already playing out on the market.

The latest price uptick has seen a considerable number of bitcoins flip from unrealized loss to unrealized profit — it is now worth more than when it last moved.

If this means that investors who bought below the current spot price are in profit, it suggests that a significant amount of the BTC supply changed hands in an area between there and recent multi-year lows.

This in turn has implications for price performance, as those investors buying in establish formidable price support.

“Simple Bitcoin tools like Supply in Profit return massive edge for those who pay attention,” Checkmate, Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst, commented about the data.

“What we are looking at is a relatively small price change (~10%), but a massive 13% of all coins returning to profit. This means a foundation of massive capitulation –> accumulation.”

*Bitcoin % supply in profit annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter*

The terms “capitulation” and “accumulation” correspond to classic market cycles, notably that of Wyckoff, which calls for an accumulation period following a macro low, which should later lead to the market’s next bullish phase.

In terms of numbers, at $18,200, 13% of the circulating BTC supply had returned to profit, according to Glassnode.

“The observed sharp move upwards in this metric helps to confirm that a large volume of BTC was acquired between $16.5k and $18.2k,” the firm reiterated.

Mood echoes December highs

Bitcoin at one-month highs meanwhile provides a stark contrast to post-FTX chaos in terms of profitability.

As Cointelegraph reported, in the aftermath of the FTX meltdown, hodlers were sitting on more than half of the supply in unrealized loss.

The picture barely improved in subsequent weeks, with Bitcoin’s realized cap drawdown nearing bear market bottom territory.

In December, at the time when BTC/USD last traded above $18,000, Philip Swift, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, was nonetheless already eyeing a move from capitulation to accumulation.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price targets stretch to $19K as BTC jumps 4% from daily lows

Bitcoin retains $17,200 after an overnight squeeze takes BTC price action to within reach of one-month highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed higher after a $17,000 liquidity grab on Dec. 9 as traders targeted further upside.

Bitcoin attempts new monthly high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling volatility once more after hitting $17,300 on Bitstamp.

The pair had begun by taking liquidity at the Dec. 8 Wall Street open, this snowballing to see it challenge one-month highs from Dec. 5.

For those already betting on upward continuation, the move came as little surprise, with the coast still clear to add to the gains.

“The move to 18-19k $BTC continues,” popular trader Credible Crypto summarized.

A previous tweet from Dec. 7 explained the rationale, with invalidation set at $16,000 support.

“Lows cleaned up and as if on cue Binance apes showing up to support the mid 16k’s,” part of accompanying comments read:

“Maybe one more push into 16.4-16.5k and then expecting a reversal back up and continuation to 18-19k targets.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ Twitter*

Fellow trader Cheds, meanwhile, eyed potential continuation of volatility, with BTC/USD tagging its upper Bollinger Band on 4-hour timeframes.

At the time of writing, 4-hour candles remained near the upper band, with both still expanding in a classic prelude to increased volatility.

*BTC/USD 4-hour candle chart (Bitstamp) with Bollinger bands. Source: TradingView*

“Expecting continuation for Bitcoin as long as we stay above $17K,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, added, likening the overnight move to the breakout from the end of November.

Liquidations fuel BTC price run-up

Further analysis of overnight BTC price action highlighted increased liquidations of short positions.

In a sign of the extent to which market participants assumed further downside would enter, short liquidations on BTC totaled $7 million in a single hour on Dec. 8, data from Coinglass shows. Altcoin short liquidations added another $11 million to the tally.

“Liquidations have been relatively small since the early November crash but short liquidations helped fuel that recent move,” analytics resource On-Chain College confirmed.

*BTC liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price taps $17K as analysis warns of inbound Bitcoin ‘risk events’

Bitcoin faces more than just FTX fallout in December, with macro data due and the Mt. Gox payouts getting closer.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly returned to $17,000 into Nov. 30 as monthly close volatility loomed.

Trader: $17,500 monthly close “most bullish outcome”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD following traders’ predictions to sweep higher levels before consolidating.

Highs of $17,072 appeared on Bitstamp, with the pair nonetheless unable to flip the highs to support. At the time of writing, Bitcoin hovered around $16,900.

$17,000 marks a key range for bulls to reclaim, Cointelegraph reported the day prior, and until this happens, the status quo remains.

“$BTC bulls want to hold 16.8k as first counter trend S/R flip. Back below would represent a minor upthrust,” popular analyst Cheds summarized, revealing a short at the highs.

Hours away from the monthly candle close, markets expected volatility to kick in, with losses following the Nov. 27 weekly close already erased.

“Looking for a monthly close back above 17.5k (June lows) for the most bullish possible outcome here,” fellow analyst Credible Crypto wrote in part of a Twitter update.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD was down around 17.5% for the month of November, according to data from Coinglass.

*BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass*

BTC price “risk events” stack up

The macro picture remained stable on the day, with Asia stocks seeing another day of strength ahead of the Nov. 30 Wall Street open.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.2% at the time of writing, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing to recoup initial losses.

*Hang Seng Index (HSI) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Analyzing the prospects for December, however, trading firm QCP Capital outlined several “risk events” for Bitcoin hodlers to take note of.

These came in the form of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Dec. 13, this coinciding with United States lawmakers’ initial hearing on the FTX debacle.

The day after, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is due to outline inflation expectations and policy.

“Thus we believe that while more one-off shocks might not be so forthcoming in a market filled with fear, a continued deflation of the crypto market will continue well into next year as many are forced to continually sell assets to raise liquidity,” QCP commented in its latest Crypto Circular newsletter:

“This will likely only end in late Q2-Q3 next year when the real economy gets badly hit from the 4.75% overnight rate and the Fed is then forced to pivot – releasing much needed liquidity which could then find its way into crypto markets once again.”

An extra potential catalyst for BTC price volatility, it added, would come courtesy of reimbursements to creditors of defunct exchange Mt. Gox slated for January.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.