BitMEX

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes proposes Bitcoin-based stablecoin

The proposed stablecoin, the Satoshi Nakamoto Dollar, aims to be entirely free from any movements of the U.S. dollar, which require banking services.

While United States regulators increasingly scrutinize stablecoins, the community continues to pitch new ideas for stablecoins independent of the U.S. dollar.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, has proposed creating a new stablecoin with a value pegged to the sum of $1 worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and one inverse perpetual swap of BTC against USD. He outlined the idea of the potential Satoshi Nakamoto Dollar (NUSD), or NakaDollar, in a blog post titled “Dust on Crust” on March 8.

Unlike major reserve-backed U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), the proposed NakaDollar will not depend on any USD reserves, but solely upon derivatives exchanges that list liquid inverse perpetual swaps, Hayes said.

The proposed stablecoin would be explicitly based on a set of short BTC positions and USD inverse perpetual swaps, maintaining its 1:1 peg to the U.S. dollar via mathematical transactions between the new decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) — NakaDAO — authorized participants and derivatives exchanges.

The process of creating the NakaDollar stablecoin will be entirely free from any movements of USD, which require the services of banks, Hayes stated. He still noted that the proposed NUSD stablecoin would not be decentralized, adding:

“The points of failure in the NakaDollar solution would be centralized crypto derivatives exchanges. I excluded decentralized derivative exchanges because they are nowhere near as liquid as their centralized counterparts […]”

The news comes amid the owner of Silvergate Bank, a major crypto-focused bank in the United States, shutting operations and liquidating business amid the ongoing market downturn. The shutdown came quickly after the New York Department of Financial Services abruptly ordered the Paxos Trust Company to stop the issuance of Binance USD (BUSD), one of the largest U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins on the market. As previously reported, Paxos held deposits in several banks, including Silvergate and Signature.

Related: ​​Stablecoins and Ether are ‘going to be commodities,’ reaffirms CFTC chair

Hayes is not alone in considering USD-independent stablecoins amid the ongoing pressure from regulators. In February, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao suggested that the cryptocurrency industry will likely move to other fiat currencies as a base for stablecoins, including euro, yen, or Singapore dollars.

Arthur Hayes bets on Bitcoin, altcoin surge in H1 2023 as he buys BTC

The ex-BitMEX CEO announces a BTC deployment “over the coming days” amid hopes that the good times will last for crypto until the middle of the year.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and even nascent altcoins are a solid “buy,” a previously risk-off investor says.

In a blog post released on Feb. 8, industry stalwart Arthur Hayes announced a u-turn on his current crypto investment plans.

Hayes changes tune on “risky assets”

Current macroeconomic conditions stemming from the United States Federal Reserve previously made Arthur Hayes keen to avoid what he calls “risky assets.”

As inflation slows in tandem with the Fed’s rate hikes, multiple new storms are brewing in the U.S., and the Fed, Congress and the Treasury will steer the economy as they see fit, he says.

The problem is guessing how these events will play out over the course of the year. For Hayes, 2023 could well be split into two halves, with H1 being an ideal investment environment for crypto.

This runs contrary to a previous thesis from mid-January, in which the former BitMEX CEO said that he was staying on the sidelines for fear of a Fed-induced capitulation event hitting risk assets.

“My concerns about this potential outcome, which I handicapped would most likely happen later in 2023, has led me to keep my spare capital in money market funds and short-dated U.S. Treasury bills,” he explained.

“As such, the portion of my liquid capital that I intend to eventually use to purchase crypto is missing out on the current monster rally we’re seeing off of the local lows. Bitcoin has rallied close to 50% from the $16,000 lows we saw around the FTX fallout.”

Hayes continued that Bitcoin is likely far from done with its rebound despite 40% gains in January alone, comparing the risk asset environment to 2009 and the start of quantitative easing.

S&P 500 (SPX) annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Arthur Hayes/ Medium

This year, the picture is complex — quantitative easing has given way to quantitative tightening, where liquidity is removed from the U.S. financial system at risk assets’ expense.

However, H1 looks to be providing some relief, with some liquidity returning to avoid hitting the debt ceiling too soon. This could continue until Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling in the summer, which Hayes and others argue is inevitable.

Cash in the Treasury General Account (TGA) will be emptied to the amount of $500 billion, canceling the $100 billion monthly liquidity that the Fed is removing.

“The TGA will be exhausted sometime in the middle of the year. Immediately following its exhaustion, there will be a political circus in the U.S. around raising the debt limit,” the blog post forecasts.

“Given that the Western-led fiat financial system would collapse overnight if the US government decided to forgo raising the debt ceiling and instead defaulted on the assets that underpin said system, it’s safe to assume the debt ceiling will be raised.”

U.S. federal debt trends chart (screenshot). Source: U.S. Treasury

Looking out for macro “unwinding”

It is then that the tide will turn, and risk assets could become a thorn in the side of every investor once again.

Related: BTC price metric that cued biggest Bitcoin bull runs breaks out at $23K

It is all a matter of timing, Hayes believes. His plan is to move into U.S. dollar cash, from where a segue into select risk assets is possible. Top of the menu, it would appear, is Bitcoin.

“I’ll deploy over the coming days. I wish my size actually mattered, but it doesn’t — so please don’t think that when this happens, it will have any discernible effect on the price of the orange coin,” he told readers.

Going forward, however, altcoins represent a major opportunity, the blog post explains in its conclusion, with these likewise conditioned by timing.

“The key to shitcoining is understanding they go up and down in waves. First, the crypto reserve assets rally — that is, Bitcoin and Ether. The rally in these stalwarts eventually stalls, and then prices fall slightly,” Hayes wrote about crypto market cycles.

“At the same time, the shitcoin complex stages an aggressive rally. Then shitcoins rediscover gravity, and interest shifts back to Bitcoin and Ether. And this stair-stepping process continues until the secular bull market ends.”

Year-to-date, the total crypto market cap has gained around 34%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Total crypto market cap 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

Guiding the process in 2023, then, is the “unwinding” of the brief window of more accommodative economic conditions currently revealing itself in the U.S.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin bottomed as ‘everyone who could go bankrupt has gone bankrupt’

Former BitMEX CEO thinks the Bitcoin price could have reached the bottom after most of the “irresponsible entities” have all run out of Bitcoin to sell.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, thinks the worst might be over for Bitcoin (BTC) this cycle as the “largest most irresponsible entities” have run out of BTC to sell.

“Looking forward, pretty much everyone who could go bankrupt has gone bankrupt,” he said in the Dec. 11 interview with crypto advocate and podcaster Scott Melker.

Hayes elaborates on his stance by explaining that when centralized lending firms (CELs) have financial troubles, they will often call in loans first, then sell BTC first because it operates as the “reserve asset of crypto” and “the most pristine asset and the most liquid:”

“When you look at the balance sheet of any of these of the heroes, there’s no Bitcoin on it because what do they do, they sold the Bitcoin as they were going bankrupt, they sold the Bitcoin during the wave before they went bankrupt.”

Hayes voiced a similar argument in a Dec. 10 blog post, explaining that while this “credit crunch is ongoing,” large physical sales of BTC are taking place on exchanges from both CELs trying to avoid bankruptcy and trading firms who have had loans recalled and must liquidate their positions.

“This is why the price of Bitcoin swoons before CELs go bankrupt. That’s the big move,” he said:

“I can’t demonstratively prove that all Bitcoin held by these failed institutions was sold during the multiple crashes, but it does look as if they tried their best to liquidate the most liquid crypto collateral they could right before they went under.”

Hayes believes the large-scale liquidations are at an end, though, explaining in the blog post that “There is no reason why you would hold on if you had an urgent need for fiat.”

Related: Hong Kong could be key for China’s crypto comeback — Arthur Hayes

Following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and the subsequent fallout, the market is still deep in the grips of crypto winter, but Hayes believes the market could see some recovery in 2023.

“I believe the US Treasury market will become dysfunctional at some point in 2023 due to the Fed’s tightening monetary policies,” he said, adding: “At that point, I expect the Fed will turn the printer bank on, and then boom shaka-laka — Bitcoin and all other risk assets will spike higher.”

Hong Kong could be key for China’s crypto comeback: Arthur Hayes

Hayes says the next crypto bull run will be tied to when China embraces the crypto market again, and Hong Kong could be the gateway for this to happen.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives giant BitMEX, believes the next crypto bull run will start when China moves back into the market, and Hong Kong has a vital part to play in this process. 

In his Oct. 26 blog post titled “Comeback,” Hayes outlined why he thinks the Hong Kong government’s announcement about introducing a bill to regulate crypto is a sign China is trying to ease its way back into the market. This could be because Hong Kong acts as “the proxy through which China interacts with the world:”

“When China loves crypto, the bull market will come back. It will be a slow process, but the red shoots are budding.”

Hayes argued that Hong Kong may become the testing ground for Beijing to experiment with crypto markets and act as a hub for Chinese capital to find its way into the global crypto markets:

“If these flows actually materialize in the way I imagine, they will be a strong supporting pillar of the next bull market.”

According to Hayes, Hong Kong’s “reorientation as a pro-crypto location” is a prong in Beijing’s strategy to reduce its position in a way that won’t destabilize its internal financial system.

Hong Kong was ranked the best-prepared country for widespread crypto adoption in a study by Forex Suggest published in July 2022. It considered several factors like crypto ATM installations, pro-crypto regulations and startup culture.

China has one of the largest economies in the world but has been mostly hostile toward the crypto industry. The country’s first ban came way back in 2013 when it prohibited banks from handling Bitcoin (BTC) transactions.

Beijing ramped up its crypto crackdown efforts in 2021 when it carried out multiple regulatory operations to eradicate Bitcoin mining from the country and deemed all crypto transactions illegal.

However, Hayes says, “China has not left crypto — it has just been dormant.”

Related: Possession of Bitcoin still legal in China despite the ban, lawyer says

China did resume BTC mining operations in September 2022, and Chainalysis noted in its 2022 Global Crypto Adoption Index that China re-entered the top ten this year after placing 13th in 2021.

The authors of the Global Crypto Adoption Index said they found the development “especially interesting” given the Chinese government’s crackdown on crypto, but according to their data, “the ban has either been ineffective or loosely enforced.”

Institutional appetite continues to grow amid bear market — BitMEX CEO

Institutional appetite for Ethereum will grow now that the network is ESG compliant, according to the BitMEX boss.

In a recent interview, BitMEX CEO Alexander Höptner shared his thoughts about institutional investors who, in his view, still have an appetite for crypto and Ethereum.

Speaking at the Token2049 conference in Singapore on Sept. 28, the crypto executive told Cointelegraph that there has not been a “single slowdown of institutional push into crypto” during this bear market.

He added that institutions and finance industry players typically use bear markets for innovation. There is a lot more pressure to deliver in a bull market, but bear markets offer the luxury of more time.

Höptner also commented that adoption for the finance industry has a long horizon which is why institutions will be buying and holding crypto assets while the opposite can currently be said for the retail sector.

When asked whether institutions or retail will end the bear market he said that retail is still pulling out whereas institutions are still making a push, before adding:

“I think that the institutions are making themselves ready now to provide the services and retail will come back and push it up again.”

The BitMEX boss is also convinced that institutions will start piling back into Ethereum now that it has switched to proof-of-stake and satisfies the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) concerns.

“Ethereum is the ideal protocol to build stuff on,” he commented before adding “this is the ideal public event to build financial products for ESG conformity,” in reference to the recently deployed Merge.

At the moment, ESG conformity is paramount, he said, adding that institutions “can offer products that are really for a wide audience once again while checking one of the boxes that they have for their compliance.”

Related: Three-quarters of institutions to use crypto in the three years: Ripple

The $3,000 figure was mentioned regarding Ether (ETH) prices by year-end, and Höptner sees this as a possibility, especially now that the network is more environmentally friendly and big banks are using it. At the moment, ETH is trading up 3.8% over the past 24 hours at $1,336, so it has a long way to go in the next three months.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported that liquid staking products such as Lido’s Staked Ether (stETH) are more profitable and capital efficient than holding regular ETH. As such, they will increase in popularity while hodling ETH could become obsolete.

BitMEX former executive pleads guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act

Gregory Dwyer becomes the last one from the exchange’s management to enter a plea.

Another top executive joins three co-founders of the crypto exchange BitMEX, pleading guilty in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York. The court case under the headline U.S. v. Hayes et al. goes on for two years, with BitMEX management being indicted for violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, on Monday, a one-time head of business development at BitMEX, Gregory Dwyer, admitted his guilt in violating the Bank Secrecy Act in court. As part of a plea deal, Dwyer would pay a $150,000 fine.

As Manhattan Attorney Damian Williams commented on this development:

“Today’s plea reflects that employees with management authority at cryptocurrency exchanges, no less than the founders of such exchanges, cannot willfully disregard their obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act.” 

All the founders that Williams mentions have already pleaded guilty earlier. Former CEO Arthur Hayes and one of the co-founders, Ben Delo, admitted their guilt on Februar 24, 2022, while the third co-founder, Samuel Reed entered a plea two weeks later. 

Hayes was sentenced to two years probation, Delo received 30 months of probation, and Reed is facing up to five years in prison. Reed alone agreed to pay a $10 million fine; the same sum would be jointly paid by Hayes and Delo.

The charges against a trio of BitMEX co-founders and Dwyer were filed in 2020. Prosecutors accused the Seychelles-incorporated exchange of false withdrawal from the U.S. market, as it didn’t try hard enough to stop American users from signing up. In addition, BitMEX had been indicted for operating as a money-laundering platform, lacking the necessary Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols.

Russians banned from accessing Bitmex within European Union

Russian citizens or residents will no longer be able to access BitMEX services from the European Union after July 11, 2022.

Major cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX is working to increase compliance with the European sanctions against Russia by preparing to enforce major restrictions for its Russian users.

BitMEX is changing its restricted jurisdictions policy to be compliant with various restrictive measures of the European Union, Cointelegraph has learned.

The BitMEX crypto exchange notified a group of potentially affected users about the upcoming changes via email on Monday.

According to an email seen by Cointelegraph, Russian citizens or residents will no longer be able to access BitMEX services from the European Union after July 11, 2022. That means that such users will not be able to log into their account or access any services from the European Union, unless an “exception applies.”

The new restrictions do not apply to Russian citizens or residents accessing BitMEX services from the EU who are also residents in the EU or Switzerland. Dual citizens of the EU or Switzerland who reside outside Russia will also not be affected, the email notes.

“If you are a resident in the EU or Switzerland or a dual citizen of the EU or Switzerland and reside outside Russia, you may submit additional information to apply for an exemption and continue to access our Services from the EU,” the statement said.

The measure targets all types of traders, including persons trading on behalf of any legal persons, while they access BitMEX from the EU, as well as legal persons established in Russia, whose traders access the services from the EU.

The announcement doesn’t point to any impact on Russian customers accessing BitMEX services from Russia.

Related: Bank of Russia backs cross-border crypto payments vs. domestic trade

BitMEX’s latest restrictions against Russians in the EU arrived after a wave of major exchanges like Binance announced restrictions for Russian users. The majority of such restrictions came in the first two months after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the “special military operation” in Ukraine on Feb. 24.

BitMEX co-founder Benjamin Delo avoids jail, receives 30 months probation

Delo was allowed to leave the country to travel to Hong Kong where he is a resident, bringing to a close his part in the legal saga which began in 2020.

Benjamin Delo, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has been sentenced to 30 months probation for violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), which is an Anti-Money Laundering (AML) law.

The sentence, handed down at a federal court in New York on Wednesday, follows his guilty plea to charges in February of “willfully failing to establish, implement and maintain an Anti-Money Laundering (AML) program” in his role at BitMEX.

Prosecutors had argued Delo should serve a year in prison or at least receive a two-year probation and six months of home detention, as was given to former CEO Arthur Hayes in May.

For Delo, his lesser sentence closes the legal saga which started in October 2020, which also saw co-founders Hayes, Samuel Reed and BitMEX’s first official employee Gregory (Greg) Dwyer, charged with similar violations.

Judge John Koeltl called Delo’s violations “very serious” and said that he knew BitMEX was breaking United States laws by not implementing an AML and Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations.

Judge Koeltl noted, however, that the exchange later took steps to rectify the issue and become compliant.

“When I look back, I see a fundamental failure to address a flaw in our systems,” Delo told the court, adding that he deeply regrets the actions that brought him in contact with the justice system and vowed that it would be his last brush with it.

As a citizen of the United Kingdom residing in Hong Kong, Judge Koeltl ordered Delo to be allowed to serve his probationary sentence in Hong Kong.

Related: The CFTC’s action against Gemini is bad news for Bitcoin ETFs

Judge Koeltl also took into consideration the fact that Delo paid a $10 million fine settling a court order from May in a civil case brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for violating aspects of the Commodity Exchange Act.

A spokesperson for Delo’s legal team said after the sentencing hearing they’re pleased the court rejected “the government’s cynical attempt to exaggerate the seriousness of the Bank Secrecy Act charge in this case.

Delo’s lawyers said he intends to soon leave the U.S. for Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, Australian-born former BitMEX head of business development Greg Dwyer, who currently resides in Bermuda, is in talks with the New York federal court to extend a deadline for filing pre-trial documentation, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

A letter sent to the court by Dwyer’s lawyer said “the parties continue to engage in discussions regarding a possible resolution to the matter.”

Is the bottom in? Raoul Pal, Scaramucci load up, Novogratz and Hayes weigh in

Some high-profile investors have taken the recent market downturn as an opportunity to add to their crypto positions, though others warn there’s still a risk of worse to come.

Some of the highest-profile investors in crypto believe that a crypto market bottom is fast approaching and the timing is right to buy — although one still warns of catastrophic outcomes should prices fall below established support levels. 

Billionaire Mike Novogratz, founder, chairman and CEO of digital asset merchant bank Galaxy Digital Holdings, told a Morgan Stanley conference on Monday that cryptocurrencies may be close to a bottom, with Ether (ETH) likely to hold at $1,000 and Bitcoin (BTC) at around $20,000 to $21,000.

The bottom for crypto would be realized faster than that of United States stocks, which could fall a further 15% to 20%, he said:

“Ethereum should hold around $1,000 and it’s $1,200 right now. Bitcoin is around $20,000, $21,000 and it is $23,000, so you are much closer to the bottom in crypto than you are where I think, stocks, are going to have another 15% to 20% decline.”

Hayes warns of sell-off risk

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former chief of BitMEX, took a similar view, acknowledging on Twitter on Monday that on-chain data for wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) and Ether indicated that “liquidations have mostly happened.”

However, Hayes warned that should support levels break for BTC and ETH at $20,000 and $1,000, respectively, we could expect “massive sell pressure in spot markets.”

Pal, Scaramucci loading up 

Macro investor Raoul Pal is taking the recent market downturn as an opportunity to add to his crypto positions. On Tuesday, Pal told his 956,000 Twitter followers that “we are in a buy zone” for Bitcoin, adding he was getting ready to “significantly” add to his crypto positions “probably starting next week and into July.” 

The former Goldman Sachs executive explained that the imminent Bitcoin bottom can also be signaled by the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is at 31, edging closer to its lowest ever at 28. 

RSI is a metric used by investors to measure the speed and magnitude of price changes, which can indicate overbought or oversold conditions. According to Investopedia, an RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold and undervalued condition.

Pal said his framework frequently expects 60% drawdowns over the long-term time horizons, adding:

“In fact, the best way to optimize returns is to add significantly when the market tests the key trend.”

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday that investors should “stay disciplined” amid the crypto slump, noting that his fund has continued adding Bitcoin and Ether into its portfolio.

“With incremental cash coming into our fund we have bought more Bitcoin and Ethereum […] So yes, truth be told, people will look back on this debacle and say I wish I had fresh cash to buy into that.”

Related: ‘Too early’ to say Bitcoin price has reclaimed key bear market support — Analysis

Novogratz was less gung-ho about investing right now, taking a more conservative approach and telling attendees that it may not yet be time to “deploy lots of capital,” as the economy may have further to fall. 

“Until I see the Fed flinch, until I really think, OK the economy is so bad, and the Fed is going to have to stop hiking and even think about cutting, I don’t think it is time to really deploy lots of capital.”

Other metrics that could shed light on whether crypto is nearing its market bottom is the Fear and Greed Index, which as of June 15, is currently sitting at eight, under “Extreme Fear,” which was last seen on May 17, around the time of Terra’s collapse.

Bitcoin is currently priced at $22,061 and ETH is at $1,215 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin derivatives data forecasts sub-$30K BTC price heading into Friday’s $800M options expiry

Bulls placed too much hope on $32,000 flipping to support, an error that is bound to show by Friday’s $800 million BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $32,000 on May 31, but the excitement lasted less than four hours after the resistance level proved to be tougher than expected. The $32,300 level represented a 20% increase from the May 12 swing low at $27,000 and it provided the necessary hope for bulls to buy some $34,000 and higher call options.

The fleeting optimism reverted to a sellers’ market on June 1 after BTC dumped 7.6% in less than six hours and pinned the price below $30,000. The negative move coincided with the United States Federal Reserve starting the process of scaling down its $9 trillion balance sheet.

On June 2, former BitMEX exchange CEO Arthur Hayes argued that the Bitcoin bottom in May could have been a strong signal. Using on-chain data, Hayes predicts strong support at $25,000, given that $69,000 marked this cycle’s all-time high, a 64% drawdown.

Even though analysts might issue rosy price predictions, the threat of regulation continues to cap investor optimism and another blow came on June 2 when the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed suit against Gemini Trust Co for alleged misleading statements in 2017 regarding the self-certification evaluation of a Bitcoin futures contract.

On June 7, a bill to ban digital assets as payment was introduced in the Russian parliament. The bill loosely defines digital financial assets as “electronic platforms,” which can be recognized as the subjects of the national payment system and obliged to submit to the central bank registry.

Bulls placed their bets at $32,000 and above

The open interest for the June 10 options expiry is $800 million but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived pump to $32,000 on May 31 because their bets for Friday’s options expiry extend up to $50,000.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 10. Source: CoinGlass

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows the balance between the $390 million call (buy) open interest and the $410 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $30,000, meaning most bullish bets are likely to become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price moves below $30,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 10, only $20 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to buy Bitcoin at $30,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for sub-$29,000 to profit $205 million

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 10 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $28,000 and $29,000: 50 calls vs. 7,400 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $205 million.
  • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 700 calls vs. 5,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $140 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $32,000: 3,700 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
  • Between $32,000 and $33,000: 7,700 calls vs. 750 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $220 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: ‘Can it get any easier?’ Bitcoin whales dictate when to buy and sell BTC

Bulls will try to pin BTC above $30,000

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $30,000 on June 10 to avoid a $140 million loss. On the other hand, the bears’ best case scenario requires a pressure below $29,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $200 million leverage long positions liquidated on June 6, so they should have less margin required to drive the price higher. With this said, bears will undoubtedly try to suppress BTC below $30,000 ahead of the June 10 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.