analysis

Want to work in crypto? University programs can give job seekers a leg up

There is a skills gap in the blockchain industry, and universities worldwide have created programs to help produce the next generation of blockchain professionals.

As talk of the Bitcoin halving, exchange-traded funds and other macro factors seem to point to the beginning of the next bull market cycle for crypto, many might be considering starting a career in this space. It happens to many people involved with Bitcoin (BTC), blockchain or cryptocurrencies. 

At first, they are “investors” researching and buying assets in a new digital asset class. For some, this turns into a desire to enter the decentralized ledger technology and blockchain industry. Many have decided to find paths to employment and acquire the skills necessary to jump into careers in this space.

Since the beginning of the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry, most people have found jobs through informal connections or demonstrable skills.

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FTX and Alameda Research cash out $10.8M to Binance, Coinbase, Wintermute

The latest transfer was spread across eight tokens: StepN (GMT), Uniswap (UNI), Synapse (SYN), Klaytn (KLAY), Fantom (FTM), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Arbitrum (ARB) and Optimism (OP).

Wallets linked to defunct crypto trading firms FTX and Alameda Research moved $10.8 million to accounts in Binance, Coinbase and Wintermute using eight cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain analysis firm Spot On Chain spotted the movement, estimating that the defunct entities have transferred $551 million since Oct.

The latest transfer of $10.8 million was spread across eight tokens: $2.58 million in StepN’s GMT (GMT), $2.41 million in Uniswap’s UNI (UNI), $2.25 million in Synapse’s SYN, $1.64 million in Klaytn’s KLAY, $1.18 million in Fantom’s FTM (FTM), $644,000 in Shiba Inu (SHIB) and small amounts of Arbitrum’s ARB and Optimism’s OP.

On Oct. 24, the FTX and Alameda wallets transferred $10 million to a single wallet address, which was later redistributed to Binance and Coinbase accounts. 1, a similar transaction occurred between the parties involving $13.1 million being moved to Binance and Coinbase accounts.

Related: Ex-FTX execs team up to build new crypto exchange 12 months after FTX collapse: Report

The funds’ movement dates back to March, when FTX and Alameda began the process of recovering assets for investors.

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Healthy Bitcoin rally: What does a margin lending ratio drop mean for BTC price?

Will the $30,000 BTC price hold? Bitcoin market structure remains bullish, with another 10% gain on the table as sellers refrain from shorting.

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied over 10% between April 9 and April 14, marking the highest daily close in over 10 months. While some analysts may argue the move justifies a degree of decoupling from traditional markets, both the S&P 500 and gold are near their highest levels in over six months.

Bitcoin price breaks $30,000 despite macro headwinds 

Bitcoin’s gains and rally above $30,000 also happened while the U.S. Dollar Index (DYX), which measures the currency against a basket of foreign exchanges, reached its lowest level in 12 months.

The indicator fell to 100.8 on April 14 from 104.7 one month prior as investors priced in higher odds of further liquidity injections by the United States Federal Reserve.

Related: Bitcoin price teases $30K breakdown ahead of US CPI, FOMC minutes

The latest Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting minutes, released on April 12, made explicit reference to the anticipation of a “mild recession” later in 2023 due to the banking crisis. Even if inflation is no longer a primary concern, the monetary authority has little room to raise interest rates further without escalating an economic crisis.

Even if inflation is no longer a primary concern, the monetary authority has little room to raise interest rates further without escalating an economic crisis.

Strong macroeconomic data explains investors’ bullishness

While the global economy may deteriorate in the coming months, recent macroeconomic data has been mostly positive. For example, the European Union’s statistics office reported that industrial production in the 20 member countries increased 1.5% month on month in February, whereas economists polled by Reuters expected a 1% increase.

Furthermore, China’s latest macroeconomic data showed an encouraging trend, with exports increasing 14.8% year on year in March, snapping a five-month decline and surprising economists who expected a 7% decline. As a result, China’s trade balance for March was $89.2 billion, far exceeding the $39.2 billion market consensus.

The contrast between the current economic momentum and the forthcoming recession triggered by higher financing costs and a reduced appetite for risk among lenders causes Bitcoin investors to question the sustainability of the $30,000 support.

Let’s look at Bitcoin derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market environment.

BTC derivatives show no excessive leverage from longs

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because they allow investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

OKX, for instance, provides a margin lending indicator based on the stablecoin/BTC ratio. Traders can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only bet on the decline of a cryptocurrency’s price.

OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio decreased between April 9 and April 11. That is extremely healthy as it shows no leverage has been used to support Bitcoin’s price gains, at least not using margin markets. Moreover, given the general bullishness of crypto traders, the current margin lending ratio of 15 is relatively neutral.

The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets. In addition, it gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Interestingly, despite Bitcoin breaking $30,000 for the first time in 10 months, pro traders have kept their leverage long positions unchanged, according to the long-to-short indicator.

For instance, the ratio for Huobi traders stood firm near 0.98 from April 9 until April 14. Meanwhile, at crypto exchange Binance, the long-to-short slightly increased, favoring longs, moving from 1.12 on April 9 to the current 1.14. Lastly, at crypto exchange OKX, the long-to-short ratio slightly declined, from 1.00 on April 9 to the current 0.91.

Related: Tesla selling Bitcoin last year turned out to be a $500M mistake

Moreover, Bitcoin futures traders were not confident enough to add leveraged bullish positions. Thus, even if Bitcoin’s price retests $29,000 in terms of derivatives, bulls should be unconcerned because there has been little demand from short-sellers and no excessive leverage from buyers.

In other words, Bitcoin’s market structure is bullish, where BTC’s price can quickly rally another 10% to $33,000, given sellers are currently reluctant to short it.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price targets fix on $35K as Bitcoin eyes ‘massive’ liquidity squeeze

Bitcoin will spark “massive” liquidations if it rises to take out ask liquidity around $30,000, the latest BTC price analysis says.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed on course for its highest weekly close in ten months on April 2 as $28,000 held.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price analyst: “Massive” liquidations due at $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stable over the weekend after closing out March at near $28,500.

A key point of resistance from earlier in its current halving cycle, the current trading zone represents a major hurdle for bulls to overcome. Should they manage it, price targets extend beyond the $30,000 mark.

“Bitcoin has been consolidating below the biggest resistance/support of the last 2+ years,” analyst Matthew Hyland summarized in his latest tweet on BTC.

“A whole new ballgame if BTC breaks it. NASDAQ & S&P went strong into weekly close. Still major pessimism and disbelief while major milestones are close to being made for Stocks/BTC.”

Popular Twitter account Byzantine General predicted that a breakthrough of resistance immediately above the spot price would result in a sea of liquidations, leading to further upward momentum.

“It feels like some bear is very desperately trying to defend the 29k to 30k region,” a tweet stated on the day.

“I think that when this level breaks massive liqs will come in. And it does feel like a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ because there’s zero froth in the market, only some spot supply.“

Related: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

An accompanying chart showed the Binance BTC/USDT order book with bid and ask liquidity concentrations by price level.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Byzantine General/Twitter

On shorter timeframes, however, traders were content to wait for the weekly close to cement prior gains.

“Ranging this weekend it seems on the corn, and for continuation the bulls want to reclaim the range high at $28,750. Until the we chill,” Crypto Tony tweeted on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

Others were more pessimistic, among them trading resource Stockmoney Lizards, which described a correction as “very likely” before BTC/USD hits $30,000.

Bitcoin bulls add another 23% in March

Last month nonetheless, managed to crown itself one of Bitcoin’s best March months.

Related: Bitcoin price hits $28.5K on PCE data as macro ‘accumulation zone’ ends

According to data from Coinglass, 23% gains for BTC/USD almost match its 2021 performance, with 2013 remaining its most volatile.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin’s trajectory mimics both years, seeing at least three months “in the green” before significant consolidation began.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Is a housing crisis underway? Why crypto investors should care

Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman explains if there is a housing crisis underway and why crypto investors should be paying attention.

The show Macro Markets, hosted by crypto analyst Marcel Pechman, which airs every Friday at 12 pm ET on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, explains complex concepts in layman’s terms and focuses on the cause and effect of traditional financial events on the day-to-day crypto activity.

In today’s episode, Pechman discusses the housing crisis, especially after the United States Case–Shiller Index dropped for the seventh straight month. Increased mortgage rates certainly played a part, considering 15-year financing rose to 5.6% from 3.7% in March 2022. 

However, Pechman explains why commercial properties represent a much more immediate risk, as business rapidly decreases during recessions. Moreover, corporate layoffs usually cause a cascading effect as fewer companies compete for commercial properties.

At the same time, delinquency naturally increases as businesses are forced to refinance their debt at a much higher cost. The video explains how the commercial property crisis could spill into regional banks and cites to multibillion-dollar defaults that occurred over the past couple of months.

During a brief recap, Pechman explains how cryptocurrencies relate to the housing market and why the sector does not provide reliable inflation protection.

The Macro Markets’ next segment focuses on the France–China liquid natural gas (LNG) trade settled directly in yuans, bypassing the U.S. dollar as a global settlement layer. However, Pechman points out how inefficient and unreliable this system is, as commercial banks and companies based in France are not allowed to carry yuans.

The show concludes by showing how Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies resemble broader commodities trading, as most of its volume happens in USD. Thus, even if a small part of the trade goes through other currencies, the USD markets retain the indicative price rates.

If you are looking for exclusive and valuable content provided by leading crypto analysts and experts, make sure to subscribe to the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel. Join us at Macro Markets every Friday at 12:00 pm ET.

Bitcoin to $100K next? Analyst eyes ‘textbook perfect’ BTC price move

Bitcoin is in the midst of a “bump & run reversal” which demands serious upside, argues Capriole CEO, Charles Edwards.

Bitcoin (BTC) is setting up a classic trading move, which could see it hit $100,000, one analyst says.

In a tweet on March 14, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of investment firm Capriole, called BTC price action in 2023 a “bump & run reversal.”

Edwards on BTC price: The “bottom is back”

Having passed $26,000 to hit new nine-month highs this week, BTC/USD is in the midst of a recovery rarely seen before.

Despite cooling under $25,000 at the time of writing, longer timeframes are already getting analysts excited after the brutal 2022 bear market.

For Edwards, Bitcoin in 2023 has been straight out of the market’s textbooks. The largest cryptocurrency is attempting to fulfill a “bump and run reversal pattern,” he believes.

The bottom phase of bump and run is defined by investment resource Wealthy Education as follows:

“The bump-and-run reversal bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that begins with a series of descending peaks. Excessive speculation drives prices down until reaching extreme lows. The price action then reverses direction to the upside and marks the end of the downtrend.“

“Textbook perfect Bitcoin ‘Bump & Run Reversal’ bottom is back and the target is over $100,000.” Edwards summarized.

Accompanying charts described the bump and run phenomenon, showing BTC/USD in the latter stages of its trend break and cementing a key resistance/support flip.

What happens next — the so-called “uphill run” — gives the pair a six-figure target.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter

Nonetheless, Edwards acknowledged that, like any chart pattern, bump and run might “fail” and should not be used as the basis for a trading or investment strategy.

Key Bitcoin price resistance ahead

For others, sky-high BTC price valuations remain a fantasy.

Related: Fed starts ‘stealth QE’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Directly above the current spot price lies an area of heavy resistance that Bitcoin bulls have failed to overcome so far. Key moving averages (MAs) on weekly timeframes likewise remain unchallenged.

“Best case scenario for BTC is to break the 200 MA on this current move,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued about the current interplay between BTC/USD and the 200-week MA.

He showed that previous rejections had delivered double-figure losses.

“Clearly, the 200 MA is weakening as resistance. However, what if the 200 MA rejections are declining by 10% each time?” he continued.

“If BTC fails to break the 200 MA soon, could BTC reject by -12%?”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

4 signs the Bitcoin price rally could top out at $26K for now

BTC price faces pullback risks thanks to bearish on-chain movements and challenging technical resistance levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) received a substantial boost this week as United States inflation levels for February were in line with market expectations. On March 14, the BTC/USD pair surged to a 2023 peak at $26,550 after the news.

But, while the macroeconomic conditions may currently favor risk-on buyers, certain on-chain and market indicators hint at a potential correction in the near term.

BTC flows back to exchanges as price rises

On March 13, Glassnode’s exchange flow data recorded the most significant inflow to exchanges since May 2022. This means more supply on exchanges and potentially higher selling pressure.

The coin days destroyed indicator, which measures the time-weighted transfers of Bitcoin, also shows a small spike, indicating that old hands are moving coins. The indicators might signal profit booking by long-term holders, which can lead to a correction.

Bitcoin exchange netflow volume. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin funding rates, RSI jump

Moreover, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual swaps is also elevated with the latest Consumer Price Index print. In other words, more traders are betting on the upside with leveraged positions, increasing the risk of a correction.

Funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts. Source: Coinglass

The sharp price movement has also recorded a significant spike in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical momentum indicator, with a reading of as high as 82. This means that BTC/USD is generally considered “overbought” in the short term.

BTC vs. USD painting a bearish pattern

BTC price is currently forming a broadening wedge pattern, which depicts the heightened level of volatility. Both buyers and sellers are pushing the price beyond support and resistance levels, with the reversals coming quickly.

BTC/USD 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers failed to stage a pattern breakout on March 14, and are now facing resistance at its ceiling of $26,700. At the same time, there is a chance that the price will correct back toward the bottom of the pattern, around $19,500, in the coming days.

On the contrary, if Bitcoin’s price breaks above the top trendline, the bulls will likely pile in to push the price toward $30,000. There are potentially welcome signs for the bulls that this could happen — namely in the BTC options and futures markets.

As Cointelegraph reported, there’s still room to run, as the indicators have yet to reach previous peak levels.  

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Brace for BTC price volatility? Bitcoin ‘coin days destroyed’ metric jumps to 2-month highs

A large transfer of Bitcoin associated with U.S. law enforcement likely caused a spike in the on-chain metric.

On March 8, addresses linked to the United States government moved 49,000 Bitcoin seized from the Silk Road, worth $1 billion. The transfer was accompanied by Bitcoin’s (BTC) price slipping below $22,000 and a noticeable spike in a key holder metric.

But does this mean that traders should brace for potential BTC price volatility ahead?

Bitcoin’s CDD metric suddenly spikes

The BTC transfer likely caused a significant spike in Glassnode’s coin days destroyed (CDD) metric. It measures the weighted movement of Bitcoin based on the time it was last moved from an address.

The CDD is calculated by multiplying the amount of Bitcoin transferred by the number of days since BTC was last added to an address.

A spike in the CDD indicator usually precedes price volatility, with the bears typically having a slight advantage. Some long-term investors, however, may also move Bitcoin to leverage it for more upside gains on the futures market.

Bitcoin coin days destroyed. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin on-chain data shows no major sell-off signs

But the current CDD spike to a two-month high does not necessarily suggest that a $1,000 to $1,500 price move is brewing.

For instance, the exchange inflow data shows no significant spikes yet. Instead, around 5,000 BTC (worth around $100 million) was moved out of exchanges in the last 24 hours. 

The netflow volume of BTC to/from exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Therefore, the $215 million transfer to Coinbase has had little price impact so far. However, with only around 20% moving to an exchange out of 49,000 BTC, the risk of increased selling pressure remains.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the BTC/USD pair is trading above support between $21,500 and $21,950, which is encouraging for buyers despite a slew of negative news this week. Further confirmation will arrive with consecutive daily closes above this support area.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

BTC price ‘in the chop zone’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BTC price keeps traders and analysts in the dark as a week of macro triggers dawns while Bitcoin network fundamentals head toward new all-time highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with consolidation in the air amid some of the least volatile conditions ever.

Despite losing 5% in an hour last week, Bitcoin’s subsequent lack of volatility is on every trader’s mind.

The question is whether that will change in the coming days.

There are plenty of potential catalysts, from macroeconomic data to exchange setups and more, but which will win out — and in which direction it will send BTC price — remains to be seen.

Behind the scenes, it remains business as usual for Bitcoin network fundamentals, with miners preserving their newfound buoyancy and ready for new all-time highs in difficulty.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these major market-moving factors and summarizes opinions as to how they might shape BTC price action this week.

Bitcoin price stays paralyzed after weekly close

While anything can and does happen in Bitcoin, the weekend was marked by one word only when it comes to BTC price action — boring.

After flash volatility on March 3 due to a combination of  Silvergate Bank concerns and exchange margin calls, BTC/USD has remained eerily quiet.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView proves the point, with spot price moving within a barely perceptible range ever since.

Bulls nonetheless failed to recover much of the lost ground, leading Bitcoin to finish the week down around 5.1% on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, there is still reason to believe that the market will soon draw a line under the current short-term trend.

“Boring price action on Bitcoin since the correction, but still acting in support here,” he told Twitter followers on March 6.

“Indices bounced already and seem to continue to do so. Might have another sweep of the lows and then reverse up, losing $21.5K = trouble time.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

A further post eyed a potential bounce target for $23,000 should the bulls reclaim some strength.

“I just want to see some price movement today if I am honest,” popular trader Crypto Tony continued.

“I remain short as of few days ago with my stop loss at $23,200 to remain transparent. I would like to see a move up to $22,800 before any downside.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

Fellow trading account Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD had already closed the modest CME futures gap from the weekend.

$22,000 or $22,650 needs to be crossed for Bitcoin to provide “clear direction,” he acknowledged.

For trading resource Skew, the weekly open at around $22,300 should function as a “pivot” for near-term price performance.

“Probable that this weekly open price will trade as a pivot for 1D breakdown towards weekly demand ($19K) else HL with confirmation above $23K,” a tweet about the daily chart stated.

“We’re in the chop zone currently. (weakness or strength in coming day will be leading of momentum/direction).”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Skew/ Twitter

All eyes on Fed’s Powell as macro signals return

The macroeconomic scene begins to heat up in the coming days after a cool week, with Jerome Powell, chair of the United States Federal Reserve, due for two rounds of testimony.

A classic source of market volatility, Powell’s words to the U.S. Congress’ House Financial Services Committee could flip the overall mood — at least briefly — depending on his language regarding future economic policy.

At stake, in particular, are interest rates, with the next decision on a benchmark Fed rate hike still two weeks away.

“Expecting Bitcoin volatility to pick up during midweek next week during Powell’s testimony,” trader, analyst and angel investor Crypto Santa confirmed in part of weekend Twitter posts.

Popular analytics account Tedtalksmacro also flagged nonfarm payroll data and a statement and press conference from the Bank of Japan toward the end of the week as crunch points.

As Cointelegraph reported, the liquidity decisions of central banks outside the U.S. are increasingly considered an important influence on Bitcoin markets.

“US dollar liquidity is on the rise so far in March (~+100bn inflows),” Tedtalksmacro added.

“Liquidity leads, price lags!”

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of the Fed’s March rate hike coming in at 50 basis points versus the previous 25 basis points stood at 28.6% as of March 6.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Fundamentals set for yet more all-time highs

Another adjustment, another all-time high — when it comes to Bitcoin difficulty, the only way is up.

The latest data from BTC.com confirms that later this week, the difficulty will inch 1% higher to new record levels of 43.5 trillion.

This is no mean feat, coming at a time when BTC/USD has been consolidating for several weeks and miner profit margins continue to be slender.

Nonetheless, hash rate shows that commitment from mining participants is also in a firm uptrend. Raw data estimates from MiningPoolStats put the hash rate at 320 exahashes per second as of March 6.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode meanwhile shared profitability statistics for Bitcoin miners, this having recovered markedly versus the second half of 2022.

Additional data shows miners have yet to begin a firm accumulation trend at current prices, despite being 40% up versus the start of the year.

On a rolling 30-day basis, miners’ BTC balances were lower in March.

Funding rates give cause for optimism

On derivatives markets, analysts are eyeing a potential rerun of conditions that sent BTC/USD to its February highs above $25,000.

This is principally thanks to funding rates, which have flashed negative twice since last week’s 5% BTC price dip.

“Bitcoin Funding Rate doing similar to Ethereum now, turned negative a couple times after the nuke a few days ago,” trading suite DecenTrader noted on March 6.

“Prior to this, Funding Rates were last negative before the pump to $25k on the 12th of Feb.”

Bitcoin weighted average funding rate chart. Source: Decentrader/ Twitter

In the way, however, the ratio of longs to shorts remains “stubborn,” DecenTrader added, with two longs for every short “typically higher than usual for Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin long/ short ratio chart. Source: Decentrader/ Twitter

Cointelegraph has published a guide that fully explains funding rates and how they work.

Sentiment index hits 6-week lows

In a more pronounced turnaround than price action would suggest, crypto market sentiment is increasingly shedding any trace of bullishness this month.

Related: EOS, STX, IMX and MKR show bullish signs as Bitcoin searches for direction

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the mood on the ground is now “neutral,” while the return of “fear” is getting ever nearer.

At 47/100, the Index hit its lowest level since mid-January over the weekend.

As Cointelegraph reported, research is even querying the extent of crypto’s newfound cold feet, arguing that the market’s reaction to the Silvergate episode was out of proportion.

“Traders are more of a mixed bag when it comes to shorting or longing the markets right now,” research firm Santiment, which published the findings, stated.

Santiment added that sentiment might not necessarily form an accurate reflection of market strength given the aforementioned state of funding rates.

“So there could be something funky going on with an inflated amount of negative comments, even though perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges aren’t necessarily matching the sentiment,” it concluded.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price faces ‘last stand’ as weekly close threatens $22K retest

Research warns that Bitcoin bulls have much to do to preserve newly-won support, but failure could still see a BTC price cascade below $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near key support on March 5 as the weekly candle close brought fresh fears of a breakdown.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Analyst warns over fate of $20,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it continued to move in a tight range over the weekend.

The pair had remained practically stationary since its abrupt fall on March 3, triggered by a margin call amid uncertainty over  Silvergate Bank.

While avoiding further losses, analysis warned that Bitcoin could still easily fall much lower if a nearby support level failed to hold.

Monitoring resource Material Indicators explained that BTC price action had “lost key technical support” and that $22,000 — the sight of a recent resistance/support (R/S) flip — was now all that remained for bulls to hold onto.

“The local R/S Flip zone is the last stand between a retest at the trend line. Meanwhile, Trend Precognition is indicating a downtrend,” it wrote in part of a Twitter update on the day.

“Will see if that changes after the W close.”

Accompanying charts showed the trend line and the BTC/USD order book on Binance at stake, with bid liquidity at $22,000.

BTC/USD charts. Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, warned that should $21,300 fail to hold as well, $20,000 may not help to stem the exodus.

“Crucial area for #Bitcoin is to hold the $21.3K area. Losing that, and we’ll see another sweep toward $19.5Kish and altcoins dropping 15-25%,” he predicted on March 4.

Van de Poppe nonetheless maintained a more optimistic view overall, suggesting that $40,000 could still appear “in a few months.“

“Moral of the story: Dollar-Cost Average and have balls to buy when you don’t feel confident,” he advised in part of a subsequent post.

“Overwhelmingly bearish sentiment”

With Silvergate’s potential bankruptcy still a hot topic, research firm Santiment queried why the market reaction had been so severe.

Related: Bitcoin price would retest $25K without Silvergate saga — analysis

In a dedicated post on the phenomenon, analysts revealed what they described as an “unusually high amount of negative commentary about the markets.“

“It’s particularly interesting that #cryptocrash has been a key of-and-on trending hashtag on the platform, even though Bitcoin’s mild -5% pullback occurred more than three days ago,” it continued about Twitter user behavior.

“Typically, you can capitalize on this level of negativity on the markets, and this kind of overwhelmingly bearish sentiment can lead to a nice bounce to silence the critics.“

Twitter data chart with selected crypto terms. Source: Santiment

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.