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Derivatives data highlights crypto traders’ positive sentiment and belief in further upside

A 5.5% weekly decline in the total crypto market capitalization might have sucked the wind out of some altcoins, but it has done little to alter traders’ bullish point-of-view.

The recent weakness in the crypto market has not invalidated the six-week-long ascending trend, even after a failed test of the channel’s upper band on Feb. 21. The total crypto market capitalization remains above the psychological $1 trillion mark and, more importantly, cautiously optimistic after a new round of negative remarks from regulators.

*Total crypto market cap in USD, 12-hour. Source: TradingView*

As displayed above, the ascending channel initiated in mid-January has room for an additional 3.5% correction down to $1.025 trillion market capitalization while still sustaining the bullish formation.

That is excellent news considering the FUD — fear, uncertainty and doubt — brought down by regulators regarding the cryptocurrency industry.

Recent examples of bad news include a United States district court judge ruling that emojis such as the rocket ship, stock chart and money bags infer “a financial return on investment,” according to a recent court filing. On Feb. 22, Judge Victor Marrero ruled against Dapper Labs, refusing to dismiss a complaint alleging that its NBA Top Shot Moments violated security laws by using such emojis to denote profit.

Outside of the U.S., the International Monetary Fund on Feb. 23 issued guidance on how countries should treat crypto assets, strongly advising against giving Bitcoin a legal tender status. The paper stated, “while the supposed potential benefits from crypto assets have yet to materialize, significant risks have emerged.”

IMF directors added that “the widespread adoption of crypto assets could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy, circumvent capital flow management measures, and exacerbate fiscal risks.” In short, those policy guidelines created additional FUD that caused investors to rethink their exposure to the cryptocurrency sector.

The 5.5% weekly decline in total market capitalization since Feb. 20 was driven by the 6.3% loss from Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether’s (ETH) 4.6% price decline. Consequently, the correction in altcoins was even more robust, with nine out of the top 80 cryptocurrencies down by 15% or more in 7 days.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Messari*

Stacks (STX) gained 53% after the project announced its v2.1 update to strengthen the connection to Bitcoin-native assets and improve its smart contracts’ control.

Optimism (OP) rallied 13% as the protocol released the details of its upcoming superchain network, which focuses on interoperability across blockchains.

Curve (CRV) traded down 21% after an Ethereum security analytics firm suggested verkle tree implementation, which could severely impact Curve Finance’s use on the mainnet, according to its team.

Leverage demand is balanced despite the price correction

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Perpetual futures accumulated 7-day funding rate on Feb. 27. Source: Coinglass*

The seven-day funding rate was marginally positive for Bitcoin and Ethereum, thus a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers). The only exception was the slightly higher demand for betting against BNB (BNB) price, although it is not significant.

The options put/call ratio remains optimistic

Traders can gauge the market’s overall sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.

A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lags the more bullish calls and is therefore positive. In contrast, a 1.40 indicator favors put options, which can be deemed bearish.

*BTC options volume put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas*

Apart from a brief moment on Feb. 25 when Bitcoin’s price traded down to $22,750, the demand for bullish call options has exceeded the neutral-to-bearish puts since Feb. 14.

The current 0.65 put-to-call volume ratio shows the Bitcoin options market is more strongly populated by neutral-to-bullish strategies, favoring call (buy) options by 58%.

From a derivatives market perspective, bulls are less likely to fear the recent 5.5% decline in total market capitalization. There is little that federal judges or the IMF can do to severely impair investors’ belief that they can benefit from decentralized protocols and cryptocurrencies’ censorship resistance abilities. Ultimately, derivatives markets have shown resilience, paving the way for further upside.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below $21K leading in Friday’s options expiry

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 opened room for bears to score a $100 million profit in this week’s options expiry.

Most Bitcoin (BTC) traders would rather see a sharp price correction and a subsequent recovery than agonize for multiple months below $24,000. However, BTC has been doing the opposite since June 14 and its most recent struggle is the asset’s failure to break above the $22,000 resistance. For this reason, most traders are holding back their bullish expectations until BTC posts a daily close above $24,000.

Events outside of the crypto market are the primary factor impacting investors’ perspectives on digital assets and on July 14, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that inflation is “unacceptably high” and she reinforced the support of the Federal Reserve’s efforts. When questioned about the impact of rising interest rates on the economy, Yellen recognized the risk of a recession.

On the same day, JPMorgan Chase reported a 28% decline in profits versus the previous year despite recording stable revenues. The difference comes chiefly from a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses because of a “modest deterioration” in its economic outlook.

Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 remains incredibly high and investors fear that a potential crisis in the global financial sector will inevitably lead to a retest of the $17,600 low from June 18.

*S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Source: TradingView*

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

The S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation presently stands at 0.87, which has been the norm for the past four months.

Most bullish bets are above $21,000

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 took bulls by surprise because only 2% of the call (buy) options for July 15 have been placed below $20,000. Thus, Bitcoin bears are slightly better positioned for the $250 million weekly options expiry.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 15. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.15 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $134 million against the $116 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands below $21,000, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains below $21,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 15, only $25 million worth of these calls (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin at $21,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 15 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $18,000 and $19,000: 10 calls vs. 5,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
Between $19,000 and $20,000: 200 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result gives bears a $60 million advantage.
Between $20,000 and $21,000: 1,300 calls vs. 1,700 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Futures markets show bears are better positioned

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $19,000 on July 15 to secure a $100 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls’ best-case scenario requires a push above $20,000 to balance the scales.

The lack of appetite from professional traders in the Bitcoin CME futures indicates that bulls are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario favors bears, and to secure this Bitcoin price only needs to trade below $21,000 going into the July 15 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.