Solana

Price analysis 12/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, DOT, MATIC

Bitcoin and select altcoins are witnessing profit-booking on rallies, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally has been taking a breather for the past few days but its strong rally in 2023 has not gone unnoticed. A survey of United States financial services companies by crypto firm Paxos showed that 99% of the firms were putting as much or more focus on crypto projects this year as compared to previous years.

Analysts are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin and the crypto space in 2024. Bitwise senior research analyst Ryan Rasmussen made ten predictions for the crypto industry in 2024 in an X (formerly Twitter) post on Dec. 13. He believes Bitcoin will soar to $80,000 in 2024 and “more money will settle using stablecoins than using Visa.”

Along with crypto-specific issues, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 are adding to the bullish sentiment. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, reiterated his bullish view on crypto in an X post on Dec. 14. He said that the fiat was “a filthy piece of trash” and there was no reason not to be long crypto.

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Price analysis 12/13: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, DOT, MATIC

Bitcoin and altcoins are trying to find support at lower levels, indicating that the sentiment remains positive, and that traders are buying the dips.

Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to rebound sharply following the fall on Dec. 11, suggesting selling pressure on relief rallies. Glassnode data shows that short-term holders (STHs), entities holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less, sent $1.93 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges on Dec. 11 and $2.08 billion on Dec. 12. The last time single-day selling crossed the $2 billion mark was way back in June 2022. This shows that speculators are in a hurry to dump their holdings.

However, lower levels are attracting buyers. Trading resource Material Indicators suggested that “institutional sized” bids could be seen but added that it was unclear if it was accumulation or a short-term trading opportunity with dips being purchased and rallies being sold.

Cointelegraph contributor Marcel Pechman analyzed derivatives data and said that Bitcoin remains on track to hit $50,000 despite the recent correction. He added that chances of “cascading liquidations” were low as the correction seems to have been “primarily driven by the spot market.”

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Price analysis 12/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, MATIC

Bitcoin price staged an intraday rally to the $44,000 level and technical charts show altcoins are keen to follow.

This week Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a shallow pullback, but the intra-day rally to the $44,000 level is an indication that the bulls are not hurrying to close their positions. Data from the popular HODL Waves metric shows that investors who purchased Bitcoin between December 2020 and December 2021 have been sitting on their coins.

Investors have not been selling into strength because they anticipate higher levels in the future. Asset manager VanEck said in its crypto predictions for 2024 that Bitcoin would make a new all-time high, buoyed by the “political events and regulatory shifts following a U.S. presidential election.”

Bitcoin’s rally of the past few days has also attracted investors to select altcoins, such as Ether (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL). Research firm Santiment remains positive on the prospects of Bitcoin. It said on Dec. 7 that if FUD increases, Bitcoin could surge to $50,000.

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Bitcoin may hit $50K on altcoin ‘FUD’ as Ethereum, Solana beat gains

Bitcoin takes a back seat on low timeframes as ETH and SOL claw back crypto market cap share from BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to hold above $43,000 into Dec. 8 as an altcoin surge put Ether (ETH) in the spotlight.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed ongoing BTC price consolidation as ETH/USD added up to 7.6% in around 24 hours.

Bitcoin, having tapped new 19-month highs of $44,490 earlier in the week, now troubled market participants as both ETH and Solana (SOL) stole attention.

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Price analysis 12/6: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, TON

Bitcoin is witnessing profit-booking by short-term holders, but institutional investors continue to put money into BTC investment products.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a tear, rising more than 10% this week. This shows that traders are urgently scrambling to buy Bitcoin as they anticipate the price to rally further. CoinShares data shows that investors have pumped in more than $1.44 billion into Bitcoin investment products in the past ten weeks.

The expectation is that the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) will attract huge investments. Animoca Brands CEO Robby Yung, while speaking at the Next Block Expo conference in Berlin, said that Bitcoin ETFs could generate a potential income of “$10 to $12 billion.”

While long-term investors have been accumulating Bitcoin, the short-term holders (STHs) holding coins for 155 days or less have been busy booking profits in December. CryptoSlate research and data analyst James Van Straten, while sharing a Glassnode chart on X (formerly Twitter), said that STHs in profit sent roughly $5 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges in the first four days of December.

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Price analysis 12/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON, LINK, AVAX

Bitcoin price hit a new 2023 high on Dec.1 and multiple altcoins are following suit. Is the crypto market preparing for a Santa Claus rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied about 9% in November, with $38,000 proving to be a difficult obstacle to cross. Coinglass data shows that in the past five years, Bitcoin rose only in 2020, but the extent of the rise at 46.92% was impressive.

Entering into the new year, several analysts are bullish on Bitcoin. 28 research note, Standard Chartered said that the possibility of the earlier-than-expected approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could boost the price of Bitcoin to $100,000 before end-2024.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also sounded upbeat about Bitcoin while speaking to Bloomberg on Nov. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cutting rates may act as a further trigger that could send Bitcoin’s price near the all-time high by this time next year.

Could Bitcoin sustain above $38,000 and clear the path for a rally to $40,000, or will bears again play spoilsport?

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Solana launches emissions dashboard to spur blockchain carbon footprint transparency

The Solana Foundation has launched a real-time carbon emissions tracker to monitor the Solana blockchain.

The Solana Foundation, in collaboration with data platform Trycarbonara, announced the launch of a real-time tracking dashboard to measure carbon emissions on the Solana blockchain. 

According to a blog post from the foundation, this represents the first “major smart-contract blockchain” to measure carbon emissions in real time. The organization hopes this will spur a trend toward carbon emission transparency in the blockchain ecosystem:

“The Solana Foundation hopes to set a new standard for measuring emissions in blockchain by publishing this data.”

The new dashboard can be found on the Solana Climate website. Trackers there currently display the total node count, megawatt-hours, total carbon emissions average and marginal use, alongside numerous other indicators.

Related: Bitcoin mining and increasing energy bills — Sen. Warren vs. Crypto Twitter

The new dashboard also contains several emissions comparison charts where users can view side-by-side conversions depicting Solana usage versus numerous other emission-producing activities.

Burning a gallon of gasoline, according to the chart, produces the equivalent of conducting 140,416.67 transactions on the Solana blockchain, whereas performing a Google search adds up to one and a quarter transactions.

The data used to power the Solana Foundation’s real-time carbon emissions dashboard is available open-source and is modeled on the estimated carbon footprint of the Dell PowerEdge R940.

Whether other blockchain outfits will adopt similar tracking systems remains to be seen, but this move from the Solana Foundation comes amid increasing global efforts to utilize blockchain technology to monitor carbon emissions around the world.

As part of its “Shaping Europe’s digital future” initiative, the European Commission, a politically independent arm of the European Union’s executive that operates in tandem with the European Council, has lauded blockchain’s ability to serve as a foundation for the accurate measurement of carbon emissions in any sector.

In an article on the EU’s digital strategy blog, the commission wrote, “Blockchain can be utilised through smart contracts to better calculate, track and report on the reduction of the carbon footprint across the entire value chain.”

Meanwhile, in the United States, President Joe Biden recently floated budget plans that would add an excise on electricity used for cryptocurrency mining in the amount of 30%.

Solana on-chain and derivatives data highlights the limitations of SOL’s potential price breakout

SOL price recently rallied by 30%, but on-chain data suggests that the network’s growth challenges could restrict Solana’s upside.

Solana saw two positive developments this week with the launch of the Saga Android-based smartphone powered by the Solana blockchain and the retail trading debut of Grayscale Solana Trust shares.

The developments, along with bullishness in the broader market, boosted the price of Solana (SOL) by 29.05% from April 11 to a monthly high of $26.03.

While the mobile launch positively boosts the Solana ecosystem, the Saga phone appears overpriced at over $1,000 apiece. Nevertheless, the smartphone received positive reviews in user experience and quality.

Independent cryptocurrency investor Amy Wu noted that there are a lot of opportunities for more “Saga-exclusive dApps, games, and rewards as the phone ships globally, which will also make it easier to justify the $1k premium price.” It remains to be seen how the Solana Foundation will lead the marketing efforts for the phone against existing giants like Samsung and Apple.

The Grayscale Solana Trust has only $2.9 million in assets under management — which is low compared to the 24-hour daily trading volume of SOL, which surpassed $500 million — and is unlikely to have an impact on price.

There are also warning signs of lack of growth across on-chain metrics and bullishness across the derivatives market, threatening a steep correction.

NFTs carry the Solana ecosystem

The number of daily transactions on Solana reached a new all-time high in April, showing a consistent uptrend. However, the number of daily active accounts have dipped to new lows, which raises some concerns.

Solana daily active accounts and number of transactions. Source: Nansen

Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem subsided after FTX’s collapse, with significant liquidity drained. The total deposits on Solana DeFi applications are less than $300 million, with Solana knocked out of the top 10 DeFi blockchains by liquidity value locked, per DefiLlama.

DeFi usage across the Solana ecosystem has been limited to liquidity staking protocols, with decentralized exchanges and lending protocols taking a back seat. It appears that nonfungible tokens (NFTs) are carrying the ecosystem.

Solana’s market share in NFT trading rose from 6% to 14% of total NFT sales volume in less than a year by February 2023, according to a Delphi Digital report. It is the second-largest NFT ecosystem after Ethereum.

The report added, “The Solana NFT ecosystem is driven by traders who are more financially incentivized and trade a lot more often compared to Ethereum NFT users.”

However, the NFT trading volumes have declined since February 2023 below the November 2022 level, which is a discouraging sign.

NFT trading volumes on Solana marketplaces. Source: Nansen

Additionally, the smart money activity has also compressed significantly, with fewer spending and gains made by “smart money” wallets. Nansen tags prolific and active trading addresses as “smart money.”

Smart money revenue (blue), spending (red) and net money flow (green). Source: Nansen

Solana price action

The open interest (OI) volume for SOL futures, which represents the number of open positions for SOL contracts, surged toward a 2023 high with a spike from $239 million to $365 million in the 48-hours following April 11, according to data from Coinglass.

The rise in SOL’s price coincides with the OI volume surge, suggesting that derivatives volumes are driving the latest uptrend.

Open interest volume for SOL futures contracts. Source: Coinglass

The rise in OI volumes also accompanies a surge in the funding rates for perpetual swap contracts, suggesting that leverage traders are bullish on the coin. This is a bearish contrarian signal, as the market usually runs the stops of crowded perpetual orders.

Funding rate for SOL perpetual swaps. Source: Coinglass

The SOL/USD pair faces resistance from the 50-day exponential moving average at $25.40 and the 2022 breakdown levels around $29.76. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, a momentum indicator, shows a divergence between the price surge and the MACD indicator, hinting at a possible pullback. Support for the pair lies around the $20 level.

Related: SOL price risks 20% drop despite Grayscale Solana Trust’s retail debut

SOL/USD price chart. Source: TradingView

The Solana ecosystem’s growth in NFT trading volumes has been impressive, but it has declined since February 2023, and the smart money activity has compressed significantly.

The rise in open interest volumes for SOL futures and funding rates for perpetual swap contracts may suggest that derivatives volumes are driving the latest uptrend. Overall, while Solana has had positive developments, it remains to be seen how the ecosystem will sustain the price growth.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SOL price risks 20% drop despite Grayscale Solana Trust’s retail debut

The latest Solana rally has had it return to the resistance range that prompted 25%–40% price pullbacks multiple times this year.

On April 17, the price of Solana’s SOL (SOL) crept lower in the wake of similar price moves across the top-ranking cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

SOL’s price dropped by over 4% to go under $24.50 despite rising to $26 — a two-month high — earlier in the day.

In comparison, BTC’s and ETH’s prices dropped 3.5% and 3%, respectively, hinting at a bearish start to the week.

SOL/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

SOL price in a technical correction

The SOL/USD selloff on April 17 started after it entered its 2023 resistance range.

Notably, the $25–$27 price area has capped SOL’s upside attempts since January 2023. Testing it as resistance has preceded 25%–40% corrections on multiple occasions this year, as illustrated below.

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The possibility of undergoing a sharp bearish reversal in April has now increased as SOL’s price returns into the range and its daily relative strength index (RSI) hangs around the overbought threshold of 70.

In this bearish scenario, the immediate downside target appears to be around $20, about 20% lower than the current prices. 

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the $25–$27 price range could have SOL price climb toward $30, which served as support in August–October 2022.

Such a breakout could extend until $35 over the next few months, a level that coincides with SOL’s 50-week exponential moving average (the red wave in the chart below).

SOL/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Grayscale Solana Trust goes public

On April 17, U.S.-based Grayscale Investments announced that its Grayscale Solana Trust had begun trading on OTC Markets under the symbol GSOL.

Related: Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

To recap, Grayscale Solana Trust is a security that derives its value from SOL’s spot price. In doing so, the trust enables investors to gain exposure in the Solana market while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing and safekeeping SOL directly.

Interestingly, SOL’s price dropped by up to 4.4% after the announcement, suggesting traders likely “sold the news” of an institutional Solana investment product going public. 

SOL/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

One reason for the bearish debut for GSOL is the current state of Grayscale trusts on the whole. Notably, they act like closed-end funds, meaning Grayscale cannot issue new shares or remove shares from the open market to adjust to capital inflow or outflow.

As a result, the share price of the Solana trust can deviate from the net asset value. This could spook investors in a bear market when their GSOL starts trading at a discount versus the value of Grayscale’s SOL reserves, similar to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

As of April 17, Grayscale Solana Trust’s holdings per share were up around 148% year-to-date, stemming from identical gains in SOL/USD. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana reveals cost-cutting solution for on-chain storage

Known as state compression, the technology promises to drastically reduce the cost of on-chain storage.

Layer-1 blockchain Solana has released a new solution aiming to drastically reduce the cost of on-chain storage. Called state compression, the technology promises to bring down the cost of minting 1 million nonfungible tokens (NFTs) on the network to nearly $110. 

“After numerous phases of development, adoption, and rollout, compressed NFTs are live on Solana’s mainnet-beta and powering the next wave of novel on-chain product experiences,” said Solana Foundation tech lead Jon Wong in a blog post on April 6. According to Wong, compressed NFTs “are 2,400-24,000x cheaper than uncompressed” peers with identical structures.

On Twitter, users classified the state compression solution as a “game changer” and a path “to make Solana a much more viable option for enterprise use cases.”

According to Solana’s tech lead, state compression relies on Merkle trees, ”a data structure known for its capability to ‘compress’ the verifiability of a tree of data into a ‘hash,’ or ‘fingerprint,’ of the current state of the tree.”

“This compression-friendly data structure allows developers to store a small bit of data on-chain and updates directly in the Solana ledger, cutting the data storage cost down dramatically while still using the security and decentralization of Solana’s base layer,” noted Wong.

 A breakdown of NFT costs with Solana compression. Source: Solana Foundation

The development is a “true cross-ecosystem effort,” according to Wong. The solution was built by developers at Solana Labs and Metaplex, with support from Phantom and Solflare and powered by RPC node providers, as well as indexers Helius, Triton and SimpleHash.

Dialect, Crossmint, Helium and Wordcel are among the Solana ecosystem projects that already use state compression. They employ solutions ranging from NFT minting to integrations for business loyalty programs to improvements in user experience.

Magazine: 4 out of 10 NFT sales are fake: Learn to spot the signs of wash trading