SOL price

SOL price risks 20% drop despite Grayscale Solana Trust’s retail debut

The latest Solana rally has had it return to the resistance range that prompted 25%–40% price pullbacks multiple times this year.

On April 17, the price of Solana’s SOL (SOL) crept lower in the wake of similar price moves across the top-ranking cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

SOL’s price dropped by over 4% to go under $24.50 despite rising to $26 — a two-month high — earlier in the day.

In comparison, BTC’s and ETH’s prices dropped 3.5% and 3%, respectively, hinting at a bearish start to the week.

*SOL/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView*

SOL price in a technical correction

The SOL/USD selloff on April 17 started after it entered its 2023 resistance range.

Notably, the $25–$27 price area has capped SOL’s upside attempts since January 2023. Testing it as resistance has preceded 25%–40% corrections on multiple occasions this year, as illustrated below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The possibility of undergoing a sharp bearish reversal in April has now increased as SOL’s price returns into the range and its daily relative strength index (RSI) hangs around the overbought threshold of 70.

In this bearish scenario, the immediate downside target appears to be around $20, about 20% lower than the current prices.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the $25–$27 price range could have SOL price climb toward $30, which served as support in August–October 2022.

Such a breakout could extend until $35 over the next few months, a level that coincides with SOL’s 50-week exponential moving average (the red wave in the chart below).

*SOL/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Grayscale Solana Trust goes public

On April 17, U.S.-based Grayscale Investments announced that its Grayscale Solana Trust had begun trading on OTC Markets under the symbol GSOL.

To recap, Grayscale Solana Trust is a security that derives its value from SOL’s spot price. In doing so, the trust enables investors to gain exposure in the Solana market while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing and safekeeping SOL directly.

Interestingly, SOL’s price dropped by up to 4.4% after the announcement, suggesting traders likely “sold the news” of an institutional Solana investment product going public.

One reason for the bearish debut for GSOL is the current state of Grayscale trusts on the whole. Notably, they act like closed-end funds, meaning Grayscale cannot issue new shares or remove shares from the open market to adjust to capital inflow or outflow.

As a result, the share price of the Solana trust can deviate from the net asset value. This could spook investors in a bear market when their GSOL starts trading at a discount versus the value of Grayscale’s SOL reserves, similar to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

As of April 17, Grayscale Solana Trust’s holdings per share were up around 148% year-to-date, stemming from identical gains in SOL/USD.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

The cryptocurrency market may have overreacted to Solana’s FTX links and its tainted boss, Sam Bankman-Fried.

The price of Solana (SOL) fell nearly 95% in 2022, partly due to its association with tainted crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried and his collapsed ventures, FTX and Alameda Research. But so far in 2023, things have improved for SOL’s price.

Solana’s price doubles in Q1/2023

Solana’s price has risen 104% to around $20.60 per SOL in the first quarter of 2023, the highest gains compared to any cryptocurrency in the top 25, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

*Solana beats top-ranking assets’ Q1/2023 returns. Source: Messari*

In fact, January was Solana’s best month since August 2021 in terms of price performance.

SOL’s price rallied by about 140% in it without any major fundamentals that could have driven the rates up. Nonetheless, the SOL/USD pair became excessively oversold in December 2022, which may have influenced traders to buy the dip.

The rally also coincided with Messari’s analysis of the Solana ecosystem after the FTX collapse, showing its staking and decentralization were stable and actually improved its position after the FTX fiasco.

“Solana will continue to release a multitude of initiatives, including network upgrades, ecosystem developments, and community efforts, to name a few,” wrote James Stautman, a researcher at Messari, adding:

“After a tumultuous year fraught with one challenge after another, light appears to be at the end of the tunnel heading into 2023.”

In other words, the market may have overreacted to Solana’s ties with Bankman-Fried in Q4 of last year, resulting in a sharp rebound.

What’s next for SOL’s price?

Solana underperformed the broader crypto market in February and March after SOL’s January spike left it technically overbought.

Solana’s price lost about 40% from the January peak. Its market dominance (SOL.D) also dropped from 0.98% in January to 0.69% in March, suggesting that traders rotated capital elsewhere.

*SOL.D monthly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Nevertheless, as of March 31, Solana is trading above two technical support levels: a horizontal trendline that has capped SOL’s downside attempts mostly throughout Q1/2023 and an ascending trendline that served as backup support in early March when the horizontal one failed.

These two support levels have converged. Therefore, SOL/USD now eyes a short-term bounce from there toward a multi-month support/resistance flip level of around $26.50, as shown below.

That leaves Solana with a 30% upside prospect in April. Conversely, a drop below the two support levels could have SOL’s price retest its March low of $16 as the next downside target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana price rally risks exhaustion after SOL’s 120% pump in two weeks

SOL price has been unable to close above a key resistance level of around $17.50 despite its big rebound in the past two weeks.

Solana (SOL) price is up an impressive 60% since the new year, partially boosted by hype surrounding meme cryptocurrency Bonk (BONK). However, the SOL/USD pair now shows signs of exhaustion, raising anticipations that the token may see a short-term correction in the coming days.

Solana turns overbought

Solana is one of the best performing cryptocurrencies so far in 2023 after being one of the biggest losers in 2022.

On Jan. 9, SOL’s price jumped to as high as $19.50, or around 120% gains in a recovery rally after sliding below $8 on Dec. 29, 2022.

But the price spik also turned Solana into an overbought asset, per its daily relative strength index (RSI) reading above 70, as shown below.

Traditional investors typically see an overbought RSI as a potential sell signal, given the indicator has historically coincided with a period of buyer exhaustion. As a result, SOL’s price could enter a correction or a sideways consolidation stage to bring back its RSI below 70.

Should it happen, the Solana token’s next downside target appears at around its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $14.50.

Meanwhile, an extended selloff could land the price near its 20-day EMA (the green wave) near $13.35, or a 20% correction.

Buy the SOL price dip?

On a longer-timeframe chart, however, SOL eyes a decisive breakout move above its prevailing resistance level of around $17.50.

The $17.50 level was instrumental in capping SOL’s downside attempts in the April-July 2021 session. Therefore, a successful flip of the resistance level into support could prompt traders to open new bullish positions toward $25, a level coinciding with SOL’s descending trendline resistance (black).

Conversely, failing to flip the $17.50 resistance level could risk sending SOL back below $8, a possibility if one considers the negative fundamentals surrounding the Solana ecosystem.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana price rally risks exhaustion after SOL’s 120% pump in 2 weeks

SOL price has been unable to close above a key resistance level of around $17.50 despite its big rebound in the past two weeks.

The price of Solana’s SOL (SOL) cryptocurrency is up an impressive 60% since the new year, partially boosted by hype surrounding meme cryptocurrency Bonk. However, the SOL/USD pair now shows signs of exhaustion, raising anticipation that the token may see a short-term correction in the coming days.

SOL turns overbought

SOL has been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies so far in 2023, after being one of the biggest losers in 2022.

On Jan. 9, SOL’s price jumped to as high as $19.50, or gains of around 120%, in a recovery rally after sliding below $8 on Dec. 29, 2022.

But the price spike also turned SOL into an overbought asset, per its daily relative strength index (RSI) reading above 70, as shown below.

Traditional investors typically see an overbought RSI as a potential sell signal, given that the indicator has historically coincided with a period of buyer exhaustion. As a result, SOL’s price could enter a correction or a sideways consolidation stage to bring its RSI back below 70.

Should that happen, the Solana token’s next downside target appears at around its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) — the red wave — near $14.50.

Meanwhile, an extended sell-off could land the price near its 20-day EMA — the green wave — near $13.35, or a 20% correction.

Buy the SOL price dip?

On a longer-timeframe chart, however, SOL eyes a decisive breakout move above its prevailing resistance level of around $17.50.

The $17.50 level was instrumental in capping SOL’s downside attempts in the April–July 2021 session. Therefore, a successful flip of the resistance level into support could prompt traders to open new bullish positions toward $25, a level coinciding with SOL’s descending trendline resistance (black).

Conversely, failing to flip the $17.50 resistance level could risk sending SOL back below $8, a possibility if one considers the negative fundamentals surrounding the Solana ecosystem.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana entities sold 50M tokens to FTX — How long will SOL price suffer?

Most of FTX’s Solana exposure stands vested, meaning the defunct exchange will gradually gain access to millions of SOL up until January 2028.

Solana (SOL) has lost 60% of its market value in a week due to its exposure to the now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, which could continue to haunt the “Ethereum killer” well into the future.

FTX/Alameda exposure hurting Solana price

FTX and its sister-firm Alameda Research is liable to have control over 50 million SOL, according to Solana’s statement released on Nov. 10.

The FTX entities received 4 million SOL from the Solana Foundation on Aug. 31, 2020. They also started receiving a portion of 12 million SOL from Sep. 11, 2020, and nearly 34.52 million SOL from Jan. 7, 2021, through a “linear monthly unlock” mechanism.

*Summary of SOL sales to FTX/Alameda Research. Source: Solana Labs*

Furthermore, the FTX entities started receiving portions of a 7.5 million SOL reserve from Solana Labs on Feb. 17, 2021. Notably, a transaction worth 62,000 SOL between the same entities stands unsettled.

Most SOL tokens promised to FTX/Alameda are vested, meaning the firm does not yet have them in custody but is liable to receive them through the linear monthly unlock mechanism. The last of these unlocks will occur by January 2028.

That leaves the market with interpretations about what might happen to the SOL tokens once they are unlocked, given FTX’s bankruptcy filing that’s likely to put a freeze on all remaining funds.

my guess is the bky trustee will try to sell it all OTC to get funds to pay back creditors

— DeFiNanner v2 (@ZekesMommasKid) November 14, 2022

Also, the firm reportedly has $9 billion in liabilities versus a $1 billion balance sheet, which could prompt its trustees to liquidate its SOL holdings to repay debtors.

To avoid such a scenario, Solana could make technical changes to its token economy, reducing FTX’s impact. One recent governance proposal submitted on Nov. 13 presented a few options that could be on the table, including:

The errant allocation is burned.
Increase the lock to 10 years on the errant allocation.
Airdrop all SOL token holders’ additional SOL, except for the party holding the errant allocation.
A combination of the above.

SOL price relief bounce?

From a technical perspective, Solana shows signs of bullish divergence between its price and relative strength index (RSI).

A bullish divergence materializes when an asset’s price forms lower lows but its momentum indicator form a higher low. Traditional analysts see it as a buy signal, which may result in a short-term SOL price recovery on its daily chart.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring bullish divergence. Source: TradingView*

SOL/USD could rise toward $18, its range resistance level, in the event of a short-term recovery. In other words, a 20% rebound.

But on longer-timeframe charts, SOL could see further decline toward $2.50, or an 80%-plus drop, in 2023, based on a giant head-and-shoulders setup shown below.

*SOL/USD weekly price chart featuring head-and-shoulder breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, the token’s downside target falls in its most voluminous range, per its Volume Profile Visible Range, or VPVR, indicator.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Solana erases its ‘Google rally’ gains, but a 50% SOL price recovery is still in play

Solana bulls show signs of countering the ongoing correction trend, raising anticipations that SOL price will recover in the coming months.

A recent price rally in the Solana (SOL) market ran out of steam midway as traders’ attention shifted to crypto-focused hedge fund Alameda Research’s insolvency rumors.

Alameda Research insolvency rumors affect SOL

On Nov. 7, SOL’s price plunged nearly 6% to about $30.50. The intraday selloff came as a part of a broader pullback trend that started on Nov. 5 when SOL peaked at around $38.75. Between then and now, the Solana token is down over 20%.

The beginning of SOL’s plunge coincided with reports that Alameda Research has liabilities worth $8 billion but may not have liquid assets on its balance sheet to meet those obligations.

Interestingly, the value of all those assets plunged synchronously in the past 48 hours — including SOL, as well as FTX Token (FTT), Serum (SRM) and Oxygen (OXY) — on fears of cascading liquidation if Alameda Research becomes insolvent.

1. low liquidity tokens

$4.6bn of the assets are in low liquidity tokens:

⚰️ $SOL
⚰️ $SRM
⚰️ $MAPS
⚰️ $OXY
⚰️ $FIDA

other than SOL there is no way to liquidate the rest of the holdings without completely crashing the markets

the last 4 on the list are highly dillutive too!

— otteroooo (@otteroooo) November 7, 2022

Google partnership, NFT growth

Nevertheless, traders showed interest in holding SOL’s price above $30, a technical support level, on Nov. 7. One reason could be a flurry of optimistic news that emerged over the weekend, including the launch of smartphones, DApp stores, and a Google Cloud partnership.

In addition, Solana continues gaining higher traction in the nonfungible token (NFT) sector. For instance, the total number of NFTs released on the Solana blockchain is up 19.3% quarter-over-quarter to reach over 8 million in Q3 2022.

“Several developments across Solana’s NFT sector allowed it to maintain a strong position relative to a peer group of the top L1s by secondary NFT sales volume,” noted James Trautman, researcher at data resource Messari, adding:

“Secondary sales volume managed to eclipse Ethereum in early September. The majority of the activity during that period took place on Magic Eden V2.”

*Solana NFT secondary sales volume dominance. Source: Messari/CryptoSlam*

On Nov. 2, Instagram added support for Solana-based NFTs, enabling users to create, sell and market their favorite digital arts and collectibles.

50% SOL price rebound?

As mentioned above, the SOL price’s correction showed signs of exhaustion when it retested $30 as its support level on Nov. 7.

Since August 2022, two rebound moves from this support line saw SOL recovering to nearly $37, excluding one time when the price slipped toward $27.75 in October. The same price ceiling, coupled with a multi-month descending trendline resistance, was instrumental in capping the Solana token’s price rally in the week ending Nov. 6.

A break above the $37 resistance line could have SOL test the $44.25-47 range thereafter, or a 50% price rally when measured from current price levels, by December 2022

Conversely, an extended selloff below the $27.75-$30 support area risks sending SOL’s price to around $19.50, or about 40% lower than today’s price.

The $19.50 level served as support between March and July 2021, as shown in the chart above.

3 reasons SOL price is up 30% in two weeks — Will Solana’s uptrend continue?

A mix of solid fundamental and technical catalysts helped SOL price reach its best level in three weeks.

Solana (SOL) ticked higher on Sep. 13, mirroring similar upside moves in the broader cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

On the daily chart, SOL’s price gained over 4% to $39, its best level in 3 weeks. The token’s intraday gains came as an extension of a prevailing uptrend that has seen its price gaining 30% in just 2 weeks.

In comparison to Solana, Bitcoin and Ether underperformed, securing 16% and 22% gains in the same period. Let’s look at the mix of fundamental and technicals that may have prompted SOL to rally higher.

Helium’s merge with Solana

On Aug. 30, core developers behind the Helium Network, which offers decentralized wireless 5G network coverage by enabling users to become hotspots, announced a governance proposal to migrate to the Solana blockchain from its native chain.

The Helium developers cited their “need to improve operational efficiency and scalability” while seeing Solana as an ideal fit.

SOL is the staking and transaction payment token inside the Solana ecosystem.

NFT boom

The latest buying period in the Solana market has also coincided with upticks in its nonfungible token (NFT) metrics.

Notably, volume across NFT marketplaces like OpenSea, Metaplex and Magic Eden reached nearly 1.2 million SOL (~$42.8 million) in the week ending Sept. 11, data tracked by Nansen shows. That further accompanied a rise in NFT transactions, hitting a record high of over 1 million in the same period.

Solana NFT volume per week presented without comment pic.twitter.com/QaPanxpOkv

— Nansen Intern (@nansen_intern) September 12, 2022

The jump in Solana’s activity appeared as a unique bright spot in the NFT sector that’s otherwise seeing lower demand in recent months. For instance, the trading volume at the leading NFT marketplace OpenSea has seen a drastic decline .

Of all Solana NFT collections, the newly-launched “y00ts mint t00b” collection recently secured the most trading volume, with HyperSpace tallying the average figure at around $18.45 million per day.

SOL’s technical bounce

From a technical perspective, SOL’s 30% rally started after testing a historically significant support level.

SOL/USD has been consolidating sideways inside a range defined by two flat, parallel trendlines since May 23. A drop toward the lower trendline (support) has been typically followed by a 58%–60% bounce toward the upper trendline (resistance).

Similarly, a pullback from the upper trendline has seen SOL’s price crashing toward the lower trendline, as shown below.

With SOL rebounding, its path of least resistance appears to be toward the upper trendline near $47.50, up around 38% from current price levels.

3 reasons SOL price is up 30% in 2 weeks — Will Solana’s uptrend continue?

A mix of solid fundamental and technical catalysts helped SOL price reach its best level in three weeks.

Solana (SOL) ticked higher on Sep. 13, mirroring similar upside moves in the broader cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

Helium’s merge with Solana

The Helium developers cited their “need to improve operational efficiency and scalability” while seeing Solana as an ideal fit.

SOL is the staking and transaction payment token inside the Solana ecosystem.

NFT boom

The latest buying period in the Solana market has also coincided with upticks in its nonfungible token (NFT) metrics.

Solana NFT volume per week presented without comment pic.twitter.com/QaPanxpOkv

— Nansen Intern (@nansen_intern) September 12, 2022

SOL’s technical bounce

From a technical perspective, SOL’s 30% rally started after testing a historically significant support level.

Similarly, a pullback from the upper trendline has seen SOL’s price crashing toward the lower trendline, as shown below.

With SOL rebounding, its path of least resistance appears to be toward the upper trendline near $47.50, up around 38% from current price levels.

Solana (SOL) price is poised for a potential 95% crash — Here’s why

SOL price gained 75% in the past two months, but technical analysis suggests it could be an elaborate bull trap.

Solana (SOL) price rallied by approximately 75% two months after bottoming out locally near $25.75, but the token’s splendid upside move is at risk of a complete wipeout due to an ominous bearish technical indicator.

A major SOL crash setup surfaces

Dubbed a “head-and-shoulders (H&S),” the pattern appears when the price forms three consecutive peaks atop a common resistance level (called the neckline). Notably, the middle peak (head) comes to be higher than the other two shoulders, which are of almost equal height.

Head and shoulders patterns resolve after the price breaks below their neckline. In doing so, the price falls by as much as the distance between the head’s peak and the neckline when measured from the breakdown point, per a rule of technical analysis.

It appears SOL has been forming a similar bearish setup on its longer-timeframe charts.

*SOL/USD weekly price chart featuring H&S breakdown. Source: TradingView*

On the weekly chart, the token has been forming the right shoulder of the overall pattern, suggesting a correction toward the neckline at $27 during the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, a breakdown below $27 could result in an extended correction toward $2.80.

In other words, a 95% price decline by the end of 2022 or early 2023, a setup also projected by pseudonymous analyst “PROFIT BLUE.”

I will leave this here, now that it looks better.. #Solana pic.twitter.com/w03Y4Ffl8o

— PROFIT BLUE (@profit8lue) August 14, 2022

Is this a bear market rally?

Solana’s extremely eerie bearish setup appears as it closely tails trends across risk-on markets, mainly driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish response to inflationary pressures.

For instance, SOL closed the week ending Aug. 14 at a 10.5% profit, similar to Bitcoin (BTC) and the benchmark S&P 500 index. These markets reacted to a softer-than-anticipated U.S. consumer price index (CPI), raising possibilities that the Fed would slow the pace of its interest rate hikes.

*SOL/USD and S&P 500 daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

But many analysts have warned about these ongoing price rallies in the risky corners of the market, citing pieces of historical evidence of similar bear market bounces. So, SOL’s 75% rebound risks turn into a fakeout if its correlation with riskier assets remains positive.

From a fundamental perspective, Solana also faces extreme FUD due to its recurring network outages and rumored centralization. However, the project’s backers have introduced new upgrades to fix these issues, as Cointelegraph discussed.

But even then, a 95% price crash is too “wild,” suggests market analyst IncomeSharks, saying that it would mean Solana is a rug pull project like Terra (LUNA) — now Terra Classic (LUNC).

The next big drop could have SOL explore bounce opportunities near a multi-year ascending support trendline, as shown below.

In other words, SOL’s bearish continuation could last until its price hits $20, down over 55% from August 16’s price.

Ominous Solana technicals hint at SOL price crashing 35% by September

Solana is tailing broader crypto market trends while battling concerns about repeated network outages and centralization.

Solana (SOL) risks a significant price correction in the coming weeks owing to a classic bearish reversal setup.

A 35% SOL price correction ahead?

On the three-day chart, SOL’s price has been painting a rising wedge, confirmed by two ascending, converging trendlines and falling trading volumes in parallel.

Rising wedges typically result in a breakdown, resolving after the asset’s price breaks below the lower trendline. If the price follows the breakdown scenario, it could fall by as much as the maximum distance between the wedge’s upper and lower trendline.

SOL is far from a breakdown but trades within a falling wedge range, as shown in the chart below. The token eyes an immediate pullback from the wedge’s upper trendline, with its interim downside target sitting at the lower trendline at around $45.

*SOL/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

It will risk falling toward $30 if the price breaks below the lower trendline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. In other words, a 35% price drop by September.

Conversely, a bounce from the lower trendline could have SOL eye an immediate rebound toward the wedge’s apex point at around $53.50.

A decisive breakout above the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish reversal setup if SOL rises to the 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near $58.

$SOL daily close above $45

Entered 25% size (bear market size)

will stop with close under $42 otherwise targeting $56-60 https://t.co/US0ucViHN6 pic.twitter.com/xo7zfDGMrZ

— Pentoshi (leading cattle to butcher) (@Pentosh1) August 13, 2022

Battling FUD

Solana’s rising wedge breakdown setup appears as it battles a flurry of negative events, including repeated network outages, centralization concerns and a widespread exploit that targeted Solana wallets.

Nevertheless, SOL rallied nearly 40% in August, mirroring other crypto assets that gained around 11% month-to-date on average.

A part of Solana’s gains also after its team quickly clarified that Slope, a Web3 wallet provider, was solely responsible for the $8 million exploit of crypto wallets, including Solana’s.

After an investigation by developers, ecosystem teams, and security auditors, it appears affected addresses were at one point created, imported, or used in Slope mobile wallet applications. 1/2

— Solana Status (@SolanaStatus) August 3, 2022

Similarly, Solana released its first “Validator Health Report” on Aug. 10 in response to accusations that its network is heavily centralized. It reported that Solana’s proof-of-history (PoH) blockchain has over 1,900 block-producing nodes worldwide.

Nearly 88% of those nodes are operated by independent entities, the report added.

Additionally, in May, Solana developers focused on implementing the early stages of their Mainnet Beta v1.10 series, introducing QUIC and Quality of Service (QoS) packets by stake weight and fee prioritization to defend the network against potential outages.

“It appears that the network showed signs of stabilization post-v1.10 as lower transaction fees occurred and the daily transaction count reversed the trend between the middle of May and the end of June,” noted James Trautman, a researcher at Messari, in his Solana Q2 report.

*Solana network usage. Source: Messari/Solscan*

Solana’s transactions per second (TPS) also improved, from as low as ~700 during network outages to all-time highs above 3,000 after v1.10 began to roll out. Trautman added:

“If implementations of v1.10 and subsequent versions continue to drive stability along with successful ecosystem growth strategies, fundamentals will likely move in a positive direction, and network value may too.”