Ripple

XRP hits 13-month high versus Bitcoin with 35% daily surge — But is a correction inevitable?

The XRP price rally appears to be driven by a “buy-the-rumor” frenzy in a potential lawsuit win for Ripple versus the SEC.

XRP price posted a sharp rally against Bitcoin (BTC) on continued optimism about a potential settlement between Ripple, a San Francisco-based blockchain payment firm, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Settlement rumors fuel XRP price boom

On Sept. 23, the XRP/BTC pair surged to 0.00002877 — its best level in 13 months — from 0.00002132, a 35% price rally versus Bitcoin in one day. Meanwhile, the same timeframe saw XRP rising as much as 42% against the U.S. dollar.

*XRP/BTC and XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The big price leaps in the XRP market started appearing after Ripple and SEC filed motions for a summary judgment with the court on Sept. 12 regarding their ongoing legal battle over allegations that Ripple hcommitted securities fraud.

In other words, Ripple and SEC agreed that the court should use the available evidence to reach a verdict on whether the blockchain firm illegally raised funds by selling XRP by December 2022, and thus avoid a trial.

XRP’s price has boomed approximately 75% and 60% versus Bitcoin and the dollar, respectively, since Ripple’s court filing, fueled by optimism of a possible win for Ripple.

The buying accelerated further after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse suggested the same in his recent interview with Fox Business on Sept. 22.

BREAKING: Ripple CEO @BGarlinghouse Appears on Fox Business Amid $XRP Price Surge Approaching $0.50

pic.twitter.com/wg6a3QeSly

— HeadlineHunter!U.S. (@HHunter_US) September 22, 2022

Garlinghouse:

“People realize that the SEC is really overreaching and they are not following a faithful allegiance to the law in pursuit for an outcome […] The SEC has kind of lost its way.”

XRP sharks and whales buying since 2020

The price surge also comes amid the consistent accumulation of XRP tokens by rich investors csince May.

The percentage of entities holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP tokens — known as sharks and whales — has risen as a whole to 6.35% on Sept. 23, 2022, up from 5.43% on Dec. 31, 2020, according to data from Santiment, which noted:

“Active shark & whale addresses holding 1m to 10m $XRP have been in an accumulation pattern since late 2020.”

*Active XRP shark and whale addresses. Source: Santiment*

Meanwhile, the given period also witnessed entities with over 10 million XRP tokens reaching an all-time low 70.75% of the current supply.

Pain ahead?

It appears that traders have been buying the rumor in the run-up to the Ripple vs. SEC verdict. But while it remains to be seen if this will then turn into “sell the news,” depending on the outcome of the ruling, XRP’s technicals are hinting at a potential correction.

Notably, XRP has already become an overbought asset versus Bitcoin and the dollar.

The relative strength index (RSI) for XRP/BTC reached almost 85 on Sept. 23, way above the overbought threshold of 70 that typically precedes a strong price correction or consolidation.

XRP/BTC has already corrected by nearly 10% from its 13-month peak, as shown in the chart below. The pair now tests 0.00002601 as its short-term support, which, if broken to the downside, could have it test 0.00002079 as its primary downside target or a 20% drop from current levels by the end of the year.

*XRP/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, XRP eyes a similar sharp correction versus the dollar after crossing paths with a multi-month descending trendline resistance, as shown below.

*XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

An extended pullback from the trendline resistance could see XRP test its near-term horizontal trendline support as its next downside target. In other words, the XRP/USD pair could drop to $0.31 by the end of 2022, down almost 40% from Sept. 23’s price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

XRP price breaks out of range with a 25% rally, but why?

XRP attracts buyers after the hope of a positive court ruling triggers a 25% rally above a key longer term resistance level.

Crypto markets are flashing a bit of green on Sept. 22 as Bitcoin (BTC) price tacked on a 4.7% gain to trade above $19,300 and Ether (ETH) surged 6.5% to recapture the $1,300 level.

RSR and Astar Network (ASTAR) also surged by 23% and 17% respectively, but the more notable mover of the day was XRP.

Currently, XRP price reflects a near 25% gain and the asset is up 41% in the past month. According to defense lawyer James K. Filan, on Sept. 18, Ripple Labs filed a motion for summary judgment — a legal process that involves the court making a final decision based on the provided facts, rather than ordering a trial — and a decision on whether XRP is a security is expected by mid-December.

#XRPCommunity #SECGov v. #Ripple #XRP 1/2 The parties have filed a request that any motions by third-parties to seal portions of the parties’ summary judgment filings be filed subject to the Court’s September 12, 2022 order. pic.twitter.com/J6rbeRXmHi

— James K. Filan 113k (beware of imposters) (@FilanLaw) September 19, 2022

Excitement over the news could be improving investor sentiment about the longer-term prospects for XRP.

From the perspective of technical analysis, XRP price is looking to secure a second daily close above a longterm descending trendline resistance and trading volumes and open interest on futures contracts have risen sharply in the past 24-hours.

*XRP/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

According to Cointelegraph market analyst Marcel Pechman:

“XRP’s open interest is now at $575 million up from $310 million just a week ago.”

Traders who are not yet positioned might consider waiting to see if the 200-day moving average at $0.49 is flipped to support over the next few daily closes. Typically, intraday and swing traders take profit at longer term resistance levels and they also anticipate price rejections and lower support retests after an asset manages a breakout from a period of long consolidation, price bottom or a market structure-altering move.

Crypto analytics data provider TheKingfisher drove a similar point by suggesting that buyers would “likely have an opportunity to long XRP lower.”

You’ll likely have an opportunity to long $XRP lower if that’s what you’re looking for
Don’t FOMO, Long the long liquidations https://t.co/jmaCFVVOvn pic.twitter.com/TP9SW6OmXO

— TheKingfisher (@kingfisher_btc) September 22, 2022

Price analysis 9/21: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB

Bitcoin and altcoins rallied ahead of the Fed’s rate hike decision, indicating that traders viewed the 0.75% rate hike as a “priced-in” event.

The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 and Fed Chair Jerome Powell projected another 125 basis points increase before the end of the year. If that happens, it will take the benchmark rate to 4.4% by the end of the year, which is sharply higher than the June estimates of 3.8%. The Fed also intimated that it only expects rate cuts to be considered in 2024.

The expectation of higher rates pushed the 2-year Treasury to 4.1%, its highest level since 2007. This could attract several investors who are looking for safety in this uncertain macro environment. Higher rates are also likely to reduce the appeal of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies and may delay the start of a new uptrend.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Even though Bitcoin (BTC) faces several headwinds in the near term, it did not deter MicroStrategy from buying more coins. After the latest purchase of 301 Bitcoin, the company’s stash has risen to 130,000 Bitcoin. This shows that MicroStrategy and its executive chairman, Michael Saylor, remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin and altcoins are trying to stabilize after the Fed’s announcement. Could they start a recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the immediate support at $18,626 on Sept. 19 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls again defended the level on Sept. 21, which is a positive sign.

Buyers will have to push the price above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,100) to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. The BTC/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($21,363). This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could rally to $25,211.

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the pair below the strong support zone between $18,626 and $17,622. If they succeed, the pair may witness panic selling and could drop to $14,000.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has been declining in a descending channel pattern for the past few days. The price bounced off the support line of the channel on Sept. 19, indicating buying on dips.

The bulls are attempting to start a relief rally, which could pick up strength above $1,400. If this level is conquered, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($1,513). This level could be the real test for the bulls in the near term because a break above it could clear the path for a possible rally to the resistance line of the channel.

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could sink the price to the support line of the channel. If this support fails to hold up, the pair could plummet to $1,000.

BNB/USDT

BNB is correcting inside a descending channel pattern. The strong bounce off $258 is a positive sign as it indicates demand at lower levels.

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($278) and challenge the resistance line of the channel. The 50-day SMA ($293) is placed just above the channel; hence, the bears are expected to defend the level aggressively.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, the BNB/USDT pair could again drop to $258. If this support cracks, the pair could slide to the support line of the channel.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the channel to improve the prospects of a rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $338.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $0.41 on Sept. 20 but the bulls could not build upon this strength. The bears pulled the price back into the range on Sept. 21.

If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, it will increase the possibility of a break above $0.41. The 20-day EMA ($0.36) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the price breaks and sustains above $0.41, the XRP/USDT pair could reach $0.46 and then $0.52.

The bears will have to sink the price below the moving averages to suggest that the pair may continue to oscillate inside the range for some more time.

ADA/USDT

Buyers are trying to sustain Cardano (ADA) above the uptrend line. The bulls tried to push the price higher on Sept. 21 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling on intraday rallies.

If the price continues lower and slips below the uptrend line, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the pivotal level at $0.40. If bears sink the price below this support, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.

On the upside, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to thrust the price above this resistance to gain the upper hand. The pair could then rise to $0.52 and thereafter to $0.60.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) bounced off the immediate support at $30 but the bulls could not push the price above the 20-day EMA ($33). This indicates that bears are active at higher levels.

A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up and are again trying to propel the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($36). The bears may attempt to defend the zone between the 50-day SMA and $39 because if they fail to do so, the pair may soar to $48.

To invalidate this bullish view, bears will have to pull the price below $30. That could sink the pair to the important level at $26. If this support gives way, the pair could resume the downtrend.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($0.06) and the immediate support at $0.06. This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips but they continue to face strong resistance from the bears on every minor rally.

If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that buyers are making a comeback. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.07) where the bears will again try to stall the recovery. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.09.

If the price turns down and breaks below the strong support at $0.06, it will indicate that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bears. The pair could then decline to the crucial support at $0.05.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been consolidating between $6 and $10 for the past several days. The price has slipped to the critical support at $6, which had held successfully in mid-July.

Buyers are expected to defend the $6 level with vigor because a break and close below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The DOT/USDT pair could then decline to the next major support at $4.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($7.69). A break above this level could clear the path for a possible rally to $10.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) has been trading inside a large range between $0.72 and $1.05 for the past several days. The price has currently reached the support of the range.

If the price bounces off $0.72, the pair could reach the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the short term. If the price turns down from this resistance, the likelihood of a break below $0.72 increases. The MATIC/USDT pair could then drop to $0.62 and later to $0.52.

On the contrary, if the price rises above the moving averages, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. That could keep the pair stuck inside the range for a few more days.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) bounced off the immediate support at $0.000010 on Sept. 18 but the bears stalled the recovery at $0.000011. The bears will again attempt to sink the price below the support at $0.000010.

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.000012) and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears are in command. If the price slips and sustains below $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could extend its decline to the vital support at $0.000007.

If bulls want to avert this collapse, they will have to quickly push the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rise to $0.000014 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance. If the price turns down from this level, the pair may consolidate between $0.000010 and $0.000014 for some time.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Crypto and stocks soften ahead of Fed rate hike, but XRP, ALGO and LDO look ‘interesting’

Crypto and stock markets continue to correct, but that doesn’t mean all the investment opportunities are gone.

Prices remain soft across the market as traders await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statement on the size of the next interest rate hike.

At the moment, the market consensus is a 0.75 bps rate hike and a sliver of analysts are banking on 1%.

Stocks also appear en route to close the day in the red, with the Dow down 0.75% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registering a 0.79% and 0.64% loss, respectively. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fight what appears to be a losing battle at the $19,000 mark, while Ether (ETH) dug a little deeper into its post-Merge dip by making an intra-day low at $1,329.

While BTC, ETH and altcoins aren’t making any notable moves that defy the current downtrend, from the perspective of market structure and technical analysis, there are a few interesting developments occurring.

Lido (LDO) has corrected alongside Ethereum now that the Merge-trade fervor has subsided, but the asset currently trades in what some would say is a bull flag. While ETH bulls and traders might have taken profits on their long Ether positions, the Merge was a success, stakers and validators still derive yield from the altcoin and the fundamentals that turned investors bullish on Ether remain present.

Ideally, if Ether’s decentralized applications (DApps) and active users continue to expand and traders keep accumulating, then in an otherwise down market, yield should be a capital magnet, no?

*LDO/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

From a market structure point of view, Ripple (XRP) looks interesting, and there’s been a ton of social chatter about it on Twitter lately. Following the usual hopium-laced narrative, members of the XRP army have been suggesting that if XRP beats its SEC case and is not deemed a security, the price could “moon.”

Of course, solid fundamentals and signs of growth via new address and an in-demand product to market fit should drive investments, but in the absence of that, the market structure does look interesting.

Basically, there’s a pre-bull market precedent of a lengthy consolidation phase within a rounding bottom that is somewhat similar to what we can see from the last 137 days. Volumes are kicking up, price broke through a long-term descending trendline that has historically served as resistance and from the perspective of XRP’s HTF market structure, one might conclude that a price bottom has been found.

But, as a word of caution, hype and expectation tend to trigger volume surges. Regardless of whether the SEC decides that XRP is a security or the opposite, investor excitement could still peter out and the price could simply trade in the same sideways range in perpetuity or until the “next bull market.”

*ALGO/USDT 2-day chart. Source: TradingView*

Algorand’s (ALGO) market structure also looks interesting. Price fully retraced the complete bull market rally and now trades in the same range as it did in 2019 and 2020. Occasional buy volume pops haven’t been sustained for long enough to clear the $0.40 level, but things could get spicy if a few daily closes above this zone and a test of the 200-MA at $0.48 occurred.

If the wider market began to consolidate and ALGO buy volume sustains, flipping this moving average to support could see an upside to $0.69, and daily closes above $0.80 would set a significantly higher high that would indicate confirmation of a trend reversal.

As a disclaimer, these charts simply reflect assets that look “interesting.” Currently, the market is still overwhelmingly bearish and large caps like BTC and ETH have yet to find a bottom.

Ultimately, it’s the Federal Reserve that is calling the shots on what happens in risk assets like crypto. So take these snapshots with a grain of salt and proceed with caution.

CFTC commissioner visits Ripple offices as decision in SEC case looms

The outcome of the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit could influence whether the CFTC or SEC will play a greater role in handling the XRP token as a commodity or security.

Caroline Pham, one of five commissioners at the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, met with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse ahead of a court decision that could affect how regulators handle XRP tokens.

In a Monday tweet, Pham said she visited Ripple Labs’ offices as part of a “learning tour” involving crypto and blockchain. Garlinghouse later tweeted that the commissioner’s visit was related to “public-private engagement” — likely referring to a privately funded company like Ripple engaging with U.S. regulators.

The next stop on my learning tour was visiting @Ripple Labs. Thanks @bgarlinghouse! #XRP #crypto #blockchain pic.twitter.com/ICr8H2ZE3q

— Caroline D. Pham (@CarolineDPham) September 19, 2022

The timing of Pham’s visit had many on social media reacting to the CFTC’s approach to engaging with crypto firms and token projects when compared to that of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC. On Saturday, the SEC and Ripple both filed motions for summary judgment in a case alleging the firm’s XRP sales violated securities laws. The case has been ongoing since December 2020.

The outcome of the SEC case could influence which federal regulator might play a greater role in handling the XRP token as a commodity or security. Garlinghouse claimed on Saturday that the SEC wasn’t “interested in applying the law” and alleged the regulator sought to “expand their jurisdiction far beyond the authority granted to them by Congress.”

Under chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has pursued many enforcement actions against crypto projects and related areas. The regulatory body labeled nine tokens as “crypto asset securities” falling under its purview in July complaint against a former Coinbase product manager, prompting criticism from Pham at the time.

Cointelegraph reached out to the CFTC, but did not receive a response at the time of publication.

Price analysis 9/19: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB

Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hike is keeping Bitcoin and altcoins under pressure. This could change if the expected 0.75% bps hike is selected.

The United States equities markets and the crypto markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term because traders remain nervous about the size of the next Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 20 and 21. While the majority favors a 75 basis point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, some analysts expect the Fed to hike rates by 100 basis points, the first such instance since the early 1980s.

Many expect Bitcoin (BTC) to continue its slide and drop below the June low in the future. Although anything is possible in the markets, many times, the markets do not oblige the majority. If the Fed does not surprise the markets, traders who may be cautious and sitting on the sidelines could jump right back in, resulting in a brief relief recovery.

Bear markets offer an opportunity for investors to accumulate in the long term. It is futile to catch the bottom, hence, traders may be on the lookout to start accumulating during periods of extreme pessimism. A strong stomach is needed to tide over the volatility but the ones who do that are likely to benefit when the next bull run begins.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins stage a turnaround or is a deeper decline possible? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been in a strong downtrend for several months. Buyers started a recovery from the June low at $17,622 and pushed the price above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) but they could not sustain the higher levels.

The bulls again tried to push the price above the 200-week SMA last week but the bears held their ground. This shows that bears are defending the 200-week SMA with vigor. Hence, this level becomes a key resistance to watch for on the upside.

On the downside, the bulls are expected to aggressively defend the support at $17,622. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $20,000. That will suggest a range-bound action for the BTC/USDT pair between $17,622 and $25,211.

A trend change will be signaled after buyers propel the price above $25,211. The pair could then rally to $32,000.

Conversely, if bears sink and sustain the price below $17,622, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $14,000.

ETH/USDT

The bears have been defending the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,732) for the past few weeks. This suggests that the sentiment in Ether (ETH) remains bearish and traders are selling on rallies.

The ETH/USDT pair turned down sharply from the 20-week EMA last week and has reached the 200-week SMA ($1,283). Buyers are expected to defend this level vigorously.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-week EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. A potential trend change could be signaled on a break above $2,030. Until then, the bears are likely to sell on every rally.

If the price breaks below the 200-week SMA, the selling could intensify and the bears will try to pull the price to the June low of $881. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could result in panic selling.

BNB/USDT

BNB is one of the outperformers among the major cryptocurrencies as it is trading well above its 200-week SMA ($175). Buyers pushed the price above the 20-week EMA ($295) but they could not build upon this strength. The bears stalled the recovery at $338 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.

Since then, the bears have thwarted several attempts by the bulls to drive the price back above the 20-week EMA. This indicates that bears are selling the rallies to the 20-week EMA. The bears will attempt to sink the BNB/USDT pair to the 200-week SMA, which is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls.

The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20-week EMA. That could clear the path for a retest of $338. The bulls will have to clear this overhead hurdle to suggest the start of a new up-move.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating in a downtrend for the past few weeks. Buyers attempted to push the price above the resistance of the range at $0.41 last week but the bears successfully defended the level.

The sellers will try to pull the price to the support at $0.30. This remains the important level to keep an eye on because if bears sink the price below $0.30, the XRP/USDT pair could begin the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.24 and later to $0.17.

The 20-week EMA is flattening out, indicating that the selling pressure could be weakening. If the price rebounds off $0.30, the pair could extend its stay inside the range for a few more days. Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.48) to indicate that the pair may have bottomed out.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has been trading below the moving averages for the past few weeks. Attempts by the bulls to push the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.57) were met with strong selling by the bears.

Although the bulls have held the $0.40 support for the past several weeks, the failure to push the price above the 200-week SMA indicates that bears are selling on rallies. The bears will try to sink the price below the support at $0.40. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.33 and then $0.28.

If bulls want to avert this catastrophe, they will have to quickly push the price above the 200-week SMA. The bears may again attempt to pose a strong challenge at $0.70 but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair may indicate the start of a new uptrend. The pair could first rise to the 50-week SMA ($0.96) and thereafter to $1.25.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) rallied from the June low of $26 but the recovery fizzled out near $48. The failure of the bulls to push the price to the 20-week EMA ($46) suggests that bears are selling on minor rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price to the crucial support of $26, which has not been tested since June. If this support cracks, the selling could pick up momentum and the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $20. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $26, the bulls will again try to drive the pair to the overhead resistance at $48. Buyers will have to clear this obstacle to indicate the start of a new uptrend. The pair could then attempt a rally to $78.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) recovered from $0.05 in June and reached the 20-week EMA ($0.08) in August but the bulls could not push the price above this resistance. The bears aggressively defended the level and are trying to sink the price back to $0.05.

If the $0.05 support gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $0.04 but if bulls fail to defend this level, the selling could intensify and the pair could collapse below $0.01.

There is a small ray of hope for the bulls because the RSI is attempting to form a positive divergence. This suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing. If the price rebounds off $0.05, the bulls will again try to propel the pair above $0.09. If that happens, the pair could rise to the 50-week SMA ($0.13).

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been consolidating between $6 and $10 for the past few weeks. Usually in a range, traders buy the dips to the support and sell near the overhead resistance.

If the price rebounds off the $6 support with strength, it will suggest that buyers are accumulating on dips. That could keep the DOT/USDT pair stuck inside the range for some more time. The longer the price trades inside a range, the stronger will be the eventual breakout from it.

If buyers propel the price above $10, it will suggest that the downtrend could be ending. That could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-week SMA ($19).

Contrarily, if the price slips below the $6 support, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to the $3.50 to $4 support zone.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) moved up sharply from $0.31 in June and broke above the 20-week EMA ($0.87) but the buyers could not extend the recovery. The bears stalled the relief rally at $1.05 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.

The bulls again tried to thrust and sustain the price above the 20-week EMA last week but the bears did not relent. They sold aggressively and have pulled the price to the immediate support of $0.72. If this support breaks down, the MATIC/USDT pair could slide to $0.45 and then to $0.31.

On the contrary, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 20-week EMA, the pair could challenge the overhead resistance at $1.05. A break and close above this level will suggest that the downtrend may be over. The price could then rally to the 50-week SMA ($1.31) and after that to $1.75.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) rallied sharply from its June low and rose above the 20-week EMA ($0.000013) in August. However, the breakout proved to be a bear trap as the price turned down from $0.000018 and slipped back below the 20-week EMA.

Even though the price has been trading below the 20-week EMA, the bulls have not allowed the SHIB/USDT pair to retest the June low at $0.000007. This indicates that buyers are attempting to form a higher low.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-week EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.000018. If bulls drive the price above this resistance, it will suggest a potential trend change. The pair could then surge to $0.000030.

This positive view could invalidate if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.000007. That could sink the pair to $0.000005.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

XRP price risks 30% decline despite Ripple’s legal win prospects

The Federal Reserve’s rate hike spree will likely spoil XRP’s most bullish fundamentals in years.

Ripple (XRP) price was wobbling between profits and losses on Sept. 19 despite hopes that Ripple would eventually win its long-running legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ripple and the SEC both agreed to expedite the lawsuit on Friday to get an answer on whether $XRP is a security or not.

From the updates of the case, it sounds like it’s in the favor of @Ripple pic.twitter.com/SAyl4VLxdM

— Jeff Sekinger (@JeffSekinger) September 19, 2022

Fed spoils SEC vs. Ripple euphoria

The XRP/USD pair dropped by over 1% to $0.35 while forming extremely sharp bullish and bearish wicks on its Sept. 19 daily candlestick. In other words, its intraday performance hinted at a growing bias conflict among traders.

*XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The indecisiveness could be due to XRP’s exposure to catalysts other than the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit. Namely, the Federal Reserve’s potential to increase its benchmark interest rates by another 75 or 100 basis points in their policy meeting on Sept. 20.

As Cointelegraph reported, fears of aggressive rate hikes have pressured the crypto market lower throughout the year, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). XRP is also not immune, given the token’s consistently positive correlation with Bitcoin since October 2021.

*XRP/USD and BTC/USD daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

For instance, XRP’s daily correlation coefficient with Bitcoin on Sep. 19 was 0.47. A reading of 1 means that the two assets move in lockstep.

XRP price in danger of going under $0.25 in Q4

Independent market analyst Cheds highlighted that XRP has been fluctuating inside a rectangular range since June, adding that “there’s nothing to be excited about” at present.

The range is defined by $0.38–$0.40 acting as resistance and $0.28–$0.30 acting as support. XRP’s price dropped after testing the resistance and, as of Sep. 19, was heading toward the support area, as shown below.

*XRP/USD daily price chart featuring head-and-shoulders setup. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, a move toward the rectangular range support could also trigger a classic bearish reversal pattern called the head-and-shoulders, defined by three consecutive peaks forming atop a common support level, with the middle peak (head) higher than the other two (left and right shoulders).

A head-and-shoulders pattern resolves after the price breaks below its support line and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the middle peak and the support. Applying this theory to XRP’s daily chart presents $0.242 as the downside target.

In other words, XRP price could lose another 30% by the end of this year, driven primarily by macro catalysts.

Here is why a 0.75% Fed rate hike could be bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins

The Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates this week. Here’s why traders expect a 0.75% hike to trigger a crypto market rally.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index suffered their worst weekly performance since June as investors remain concerned that the Federal Reserve will have to continue with its aggressive monetary policy to curb inflation and that could lead to a recession in the United States.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains closely correlated to the S&P 500 and is on track to fall more than 9% this week. If this correlation continues, it could bring more pain to the cryptocurrency markets because Goldman Sachs strategist Sharon Bell cautioned that aggressive rate hikes could trigger a 26% fall in the S&P 500.

*Crypto market data daily view. Source:* *Coin360*

The majority expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points in the next meeting on Sept. 20 to Sept. 21, but the FedWatch Tool shows an 18% probability of a 100 basis point rate hike. This uncertainty could keep traders on edge, resulting in heightened short-term volatility.

If the Fed’s rate hike is in line with market expectations, select cryptocurrencies could attract buyers. Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that are positive in the near term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin recovered from $19,320 on Sept. 16 and rallied above $20,000 on Sept. 17, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are active at higher levels.

The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $20,432 has turned down gradually and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling near overhead resistance levels.

If the price continues lower and breaks below $19,320, the BTC/Tether (USDT) pair could decline to $18,510. Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigor.

On the upside, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $21,605 is the key level to keep an eye on. If the bulls push the price above it, the pair could rally to $25,211. A break and close above this resistance could indicate the start of a new uptrend.

*BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows that the sellers are trying to stall the recovery at the 20-EMA. This indicates that the bears are in no mood to surrender their advantage. If the weakness persists and the price breaks below $19,320, the pair could slide to $18,510.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-EMA, the recovery could extend to the 50-SMA. This level may again act as a resistance but if this obstacle is cleared, the next stop could be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $21,470.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been stuck inside a range between $0.30 and $0.39 for many days. The price has reached the resistance of the range, and if the bulls clear this hurdle, it could signal the start of a new uptrend.

In a range, traders usually buy near the support and sell close to the resistance. If the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that the XRP/USDT pair may extend its consolidation for a few more days.

Although the moving averages are crisscrossing each other, the RSI has jumped into positive territory, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. If buyers drive and sustain the price above $0.39, the pair could rally to $0.48.

*XRP/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair rallied sharply from $0.32 to $0.39, indicating strong buying by the bulls. The 20-EMA has turned up and the RSI is in the positive zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If the price continues higher and breaks above $0.39, the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair could rally to $0.41. This level may act as a resistance but if buyers flip the $0.39 level into support, the up-move could resume.

LINK/USDT

Chainlink (LINK) has been stuck inside a large range between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past several weeks, indicating that buyers are attempting to form a bottom. The bulls pushed the price above the moving averages and the RSI jumped into positive territory, indicating that the positive momentum could be improving.

There is a minor resistance at $8.30 and if the bulls push the price above it, the LINK/USDT pair could rally to the stiff resistance at $9.50. This level is likely to attract aggressive selling by the bears, but if the bulls pierce through the barrier, it could indicate the start of a new uptrend.

The moving averages are the important support to watch for on the downside because if they give way, the selling pressure may pick up. That could start a decline to $7.00 and thereafter to $6.20.

*LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Buyers are attempting to defend the moving averages on the 4-hour chart. That could start a recovery toward the overhead resistance at $8.20. If the price rises above this overhead resistance, the pair could rally to $9.00.

If bulls fail to push the price above $8.20, the bears may fancy their chances and try to sink the pair below the moving averages. That may tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. The pair could first decline to $7.50 and then to $7.00.

EOS/USDT

The bears pulled EOS below the 50-day SMA of $1.44 on Sept. 15, but they could not break the support at $1.34. This suggests that the bulls are buying on dips and are attempting to form a low near $1.34.

A minor negative is that the bulls are facing strong resistance at the 20-day EMA of $1.50. This indicates that the bears have not given up and are attempting to wrest control. This tussle between the bulls and the bears is likely to resolve with a strong breakout.

If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the EOS/USDT pair could rally to $1.86. Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $1.34, the pair could decline to $1.24. A break below this support could sink the pair to $1.00.

*EOS/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The recovery faltered near $1.50, indicating that the bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will try to further cement their edge by pulling the price below the strong support of $1.34, but that may not be that easy.

Buyers have defended the $1.34 level on three occasions and will again try to do so. If the price rebounds off $1.34, the bulls may again attempt a rally above the overhead resistance of $1.50. If they manage to do that, a rally to $1.70 and later to $1.86 is possible.

XTZ/USDT

Tezos (XTZ) broke below the 20-day EMA of $1.57 on Sept. 13, but the bears could not pull the price to the support line of the symmetrical triangle. This indicates that buyers are accumulating on dips and not waiting for a deeper correction to make an entry. This increases the likelihood of a recovery in the near term.

If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the XTZ/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA of $1.66. This level has acted as a strong resistance on two previous occasions; hence it is an important level to keep an eye on. If the bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could attempt a rally to the resistance line of the triangle.

A break above the triangle will signal a potential trend change. The pair could then rise to $2.00 and later to $2.36.

Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to stall the recovery at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the current level and slips below the $1.50 to $1.40 support zone, the June low at $1.20 may be revisited.

*XTZ/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls defended the support at $1.50 and pushed the price above the downtrend line, but they could not sustain the higher levels. If the bears sink the price below $1.50, the pair could decline to $1.40.

On the other hand, if the price rebounds off the $1.50 support once again, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The bulls will then try to push the price above the moving averages and challenge the resistance at $1.62. If this level gives way, the up-move could reach $1.70.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

CDC gives nod to Lummis-Gillibrand bill in proposed amicus brief in SEC v. Ripple case

The Chamber of Digital Commerce asked to file an amicus brief in the protracted SEC case against Ripple Labs and supports legislating to clear up a legal gray area.

The Chamber of Digital Commerce (CDC) has requested to file an amicus brief in the case of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple Labs and its executives Bradley Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen. Liliya Tessler of the firm Sidley Austin filed a package of documents, including the proposed brief, with the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of New York on Wednesday.

The CDC is the world’s largest blockchain and digital asset trade group, with over 200 members that include industry players, investors and law firms. It argued that the Chamber does not have “a view on whether the offer and sale of XRP is a securities transaction,” but it is interested in “ensuring that the legal framework applied to digital assets underlying an investment contract is clear and consistent,” adding:

“Maintaining this distinction is critical to developing a predictable legal environment through a technology-neutral precedent, which this Court has the power to do.”

The documents later restate the question as “whether the well-settled law applicable to the offer and sale of an investment contract that is a securities transaction is properly distinguished from the law applicable to secondary transactions in digital assets that were previously the subject of an investment contract” in light of the fact that “no federal law (or regulation) specifically governs the legal characterization of digital assets recorded on a blockchain.”

The Chamber is wading into the Ripple v. SEC case.

Expect something similar to what it filed in the Telegram case and the argument is that although the SALE of XRP might have been as a security, the token is not inherently a security.

Similar to JDeaton, just not as compelling. https://t.co/D7m0kxKdp6

— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) September 11, 2022

In the proposed amicus brief, the CDC acknowledges the “fact-intensive” Howey test, which:

“is at times difficult for even experienced lawyers to apply, let alone market participants without legal training.”

The CDC asked the court to reiterate the difference between contracts that are securities and the subjects of those contracts, which are not securities. The cases cited include a hodgepodge of subject items, as is already customary in these discussions. Here, cases involving whiskey casks, payphones, condominiums and beavers were mentioned.

The CDC continued its argument saying that the SEC has “commendably provided guidance on the application of securities laws,” but “the SEC’s enforcement approach, similarly based on Howey, paints a different picture” and the agency has failed to provide guidance to market participants who have requested it.

The CDC continues that the SEC is using in its case against Ripple a novel application of contract analysis of secondary transactions with assets subject to an investment contract, but has not provided guidance on how to apply that analysis. Nonetheless, the SEC still expects market participants to determine whether or not an asset is a security.

The CDC noted the lack of precedent on secondary transactions with the subjects of securities contracts but stated:

“The Chamber believes that, as long as the underlying asset does not include financial interests, such as legal rights to debt or equity, digital assets are presumed to be commodities.”

The CDC noted that the proposed Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA) took the same stance when it introduced the concept of “ancillary assets” into consideration. Furthermore:

“The Chamber respectfully asks that this Court draw upon the principles set forth in RFIA for guidance if it decides to clarify the characterization of digital assets, which are the subject of an investment contract or defer such a decision to the legislature.”

Price analysis 9/14: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB

Bitcoin is struggling to find support in the $20,000 zone, which is negatively impacting investor sentiment and weighing on most altcoin prices.

The United States equities markets and the cryptocurrency markets had been rising leading up to the Sept. 13 release of the August Consumer Price Index data, but the rally fell apart once the data showed inflation rising, rather than falling.

The negative data dashed any hope of a Federal Reserve pivot in the near term and it triggered a sharp decline in risky assets. The market capitalization of U.S. stocks plunged by about $1.6 trillion on Sept. 13 and the market cap of the cryptocurrency markets slipped below $1 trillion.

Statistician and independent market analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may have to fall further before it reaches the maximum pain experienced during previous bottoms. Woo expects Bitcoin price to decline below $10,000.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins resume their downtrend? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($21,902) on Sept. 12, but this proved to be a bull trap. Buyers attempted to extend the recovery on Sept. 13 but the rally reversed direction from $22,799.

Aggressive selling by the bears pulled the price back below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,722). A minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to stall the decline at $20,000.

If buyers push the price back above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The BTC/USDT pair will then attempt to rise to the 50-day SMA and later retest $22,799. A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to $25,211.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips below $19,860, the pair could drop to the $18,510 to $17,622 zone. The bulls are expected to defend this zone with vigor.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down and plummeted below the moving averages on Sept. 13, tilting the short-term advantage in favor of the bears. A minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to defend the support line of the rising wedge pattern.

If the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the wedge. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the wedge to clear the path for a possible rally to $2,030.

Alternatively, if the price fails to cross above the moving averages, the likelihood of a drop below the bearish wedge pattern increases. If that happens, the selling pressure could pick up and the pair could drop to $1,422 and later to $1,280. Buyers are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.

BNB/USDT

BNB turned down from $300 on Sept. 12 and plunged below the moving averages on Sept. 13. This tilted the short-term advantage in favor of the bears but the bulls have not yet given up.

Buyers are attempting to defend the immediate support at $275 and push the price above the 20-day EMA ($285). If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could challenge the $300 to $307.50 resistance zone. If buyers clear this zone, the rally could pick up momentum.

Conversely, if bulls fail to push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on minor rallies. That could enhance the prospects of a break below $275. If that happens, the pair could decline to $258 and then to $240.

XRP/USDT

After trading near the 50-day SMA ($0.35) for three days, Ripple (XRP) turned down and broke below the moving averages on Sept. 13. This pulled the price below the breakout level of $0.34.

Buyers are trying to push the price back above the 20-day EMA ($0.34) on Sept. 14. If they succeed, it will suggest that the XRP/USDT pair has formed a higher low at $0.33. The pair could then retest the overhead resistance at $0.36. A break and close above this level could push the pair toward $0.39.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on minor rallies. That could pull the price down to the strong support at $0.32.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) rose above the 50-day SMA ($0.49) on Sept. 9 but the bulls could not continue the recovery and push the price to the downtrend line. This indicates hesitation by the bulls to buy at higher levels.

The failure to extend the recovery may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That pulled the price back below the moving averages on Sept.13.

A minor positive is that the ADA/USDT pair rebounded off $0.46 and the bulls are attempting to push the price back above the moving averages. This indicates that lower levels continue to attract strong buying by the bulls. If the price rises above the 50-day SMA, the pair could reach the downtrend line.

This view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down from the moving averages and plummets below $0.45. The pair could then decline to $0.42.

SOL/USDT

Buyers pushed Solana (SOL) above the 50-day SMA ($37.30) on Sept. 13 and 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This shows that bears are defending the 50-day SMA with vigor.

Strong selling on Sept. 13 pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($34). The bears will now try to sink the SOL/USDT pair to the immediate support at $30. The repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If the $30 level cracks, the pair could start its descent to the vital support at $26.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA. The bulls will have to clear this overhead hurdle to indicate the start of an up-move to $48.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the support zone near $0.06 on Sept. 7 but the recovery fizzled out at the 20-day EMA ($0.06). This indicates that bears are defending the moving averages aggressively.

The price turned down from the 20-day EMA on Sept. 13 and reached the support at $0.06. The bulls are expected to defend the level aggressively as a break and close below it could sink the DOGE/USDT pair to the June low at $0.05. If this support cracks, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

This negative view could invalidate if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.09.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) repeatedly tried to rise and sustain above the 50-day SMA ($7.90) Sept. 9–13 but the bears held their ground. This indicates that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies to resistance levels.

The failure to rise above the 50-day SMA may have attracted strong selling by the bears and profit-booking by the short-term bulls. That pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA ($7.43) on Sept. 13. The bears will now attempt to sink the DOT/USDT pair below the immediate support at $6.75 and challenge the crucial level at $6.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then again try to overcome the barrier at the 50-day SMA and start a rally toward $10.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) has been stuck inside a large range between $0.75 and $1.05 for the past several weeks. Both moving averages have flattened out and the relative strength index is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.

The MATIC/USDT pair has been attempting to rise inside an ascending channel for the past few days. If the price plummets below the channel, it will signal a minor advantage to the bears. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $0.75.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages, the pair could reach the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel could open the doors for a possible rally to $1.05.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) managed to stay above the moving averages between Sept. 9 and12 but the bulls could not build upon this strength and clear the overhead hurdle at the downtrend line. This indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.

The price plunged back below the moving averages on Sept. 13 and the bears will now attempt to pull the SHIB/USDT pair below the strong support at $0.000012. If they succeed, the pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. This bearish setup has a target objective of $0.000009.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above the moving averages, the pair could reach the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will invalidate the bearish setup and clear the path for a rally to $0.000018.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.