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Price analysis 9/24: BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, AVAX, LUNA

Bitcoin and altcoins made a sharp downside move to their recent lows after news that China banned crypto trading surfaced.

The crypto market’s recovery was rocked on Sept. 24 after news that China’s government is adopting a new set of measures that includes stronger inter-departmental coordination to “cut off payment channels, dispose of relevant websites and mobile applications” to crack down on illegal cryptocurrency transactions efficiently.

Although the news has caused a selloff, long-term investors are unlikely to be perturbed because, apart from announcing additional measures to enforce the existing ban effectively, there is nothing else that has changed.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

China first announced a ban on cryptocurrencies back in September 2017 and that news had also resulted in a sharp correction in Bitcoin (BTC) price. However, that dip proved to be a good buying opportunity because the price recovered within a few weeks and went on to hit a new all-time high close to $20,000 in less than three months.

Is the current correction in Bitcoin and most major altcoins a good buying opportunity or could the crypto markets tumble further? Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin bounced off the 100-day simple moving average ($40,874) and rose above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on Sept. 22. That showed strong demand at lower levels but the recovery could not clear the hurdle at the 20-day exponential moving average ($45,596).

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. If bears sink and sustain the price below the 100-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could decline to $37,332.70.

This level may act as a strong support but if it cracks, the next stop could be at the pattern target at $32,423.05.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level or the 100-day SMA, the bulls will again try to drive the pair above the moving averages. A close above the 50-day SMA ($46,816) will suggest that the correction may be over.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) rebounded off the 100-day SMA ($2,734) on Sept. 22 and rose above the breakdown level at $3,000. This shows that bulls bought the dip and tried to trap the aggressive bears.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the recovery stalled at $3,174.50 on Sept. 23 and the bears are attempting to establish their supremacy. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($3,255) and the RSI below 41 indicate that bears are in command.

If the index breaks and closes below the 100-day SMA, the ETH/USDT pair could witness aggressive selling. The pair could then drop towards the pattern target at $1,972.12. This negative view will invalidate if bulls drive and sustain the price above the moving averages.

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s (ADA) strong rebound off the $1.94 level hit a roadblock at the 20-day EMA ($2.36). This suggests that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will now try to sink the price below the critical support zone at $1.94 and the 100-day SMA ($1.83). If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could plummet to $1.60 and then to $1.40.

Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level or rebounds off $1.94, the bulls will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle. A break and close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the correction may be over. The pair could then rally to $2.60 and then $2.80.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin’s (BNB) rebound off the strong support at $340 turned down from $385.30 today, indicating strong selling by traders at higher levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($402) and the RSI below 37 indicate that bears are in control. If the $340 support cracks, the selling could intensify and the BNB/USDT pair could extend its decline to $300 and then to $250.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the price above the moving averages. A break and close above $433 will signal that the correction may have ended.

XRP/USDT

XRP bounced off the 100-day SMA ($0.87) on Sept. 22 but the bulls could not extend the recovery. The altcoin formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Sept. 23, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The uncertainty resolved to the downside today as bears have pulled the price down to the 100-day SMA. If this support gives way, the selling could pick up momentum and the XRP/USDT pair could slide to $0. 70.

This level may act as a strong support but if bears sink the price below it, the next stop could be $0.50. This negative view will be negated if the price rebounds off the 100-day SMA and rises above the $1.07 to $1.13 resistance zone.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) bounced and rose above the 20-day EMA ($145) on Sept. 22 but the bulls could not push the price above the downtrend line. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA today and the SOL/USDT pair could now drop to the 50-day SMA ($108). This level is likely to act as a strong support.

If the price rebounds off it, the bulls will again try to thrust and sustain the price above the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the pair could rise to $170 and then to $200.

Conversely, if the 50-day SMA cracks, the pair could witness panic selling and the price could then drop to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $98.26.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot’s (DOT) rebound off $25.50 stalled at $33.60. This suggests that bears are selling at higher levels. The bears are attempting to pull the price below the breakout level at $28.60. If they manage to do that, a retest of $25.50 is likely.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A break and close below $25.50 will complete a bearish head and shoulders pattern. The DOT/USDT pair could then start its decline to the 100-day SMA ($21.87) and then to the pattern target at $12.23.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level or the neckline, the bulls will make one more attempt to resume the up-move. A break and close above $33.60 could open the doors for a retest at $38.77.

Related: Bitcoin hits $45K, TWTR stock price rises 3.8% after BTC tipping comes to Twitter

DOGE/USDT

The bulls pushed Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.21 on Sept. 22 but the recovery failed to attract buyers at higher levels. After forming an inside-day candlestick pattern on Sept. 23, the price has dropped below $0.21 today.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.23) and the RSI near 36 suggest that sellers have the upper hand. If bears sink the price below the $0.19 support, the DOGE/USDT pair could extend its decline to the critical support at $0.15.

This level has held on three previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it. On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $0.15, the selling may intensify and the pair could plummet to $0.10.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($60.15) on Sept. 21 and rose to a new all-time high on Sept. 23. However, the bulls could not thrust the price above the resistance line of the ascending channel, which may have resulted in profit-booking by short-term traders.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The AVAX/USDT pair has turned down today and the first stop could be the support line of the channel. A strong rebound off this support will indicate that the uptrend remains intact and traders are accumulating on dips. The pair could then rise to $94.

On the other hand, a break and close below the channel will be the first sign that the bulls may be losing their grip. If bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair could plummet to $48 and then to the 50-day SMA ($43.06).

LUNA/USDT

The bulls successfully defended the retest of the breakout level in Terra protocol’s LUNA token on Sept. 21. This suggested that sentiment remained positive and traders viewed the dips as a buying opportunity.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($33.06) on Sept. 22 and followed that up with another up-move on Sept. 23. Although the 20-day EMA has started to turn up, the RSI is showing a negative divergence, indicating that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

If bears pull and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, the LUNA/USDT pair could again drop to the critical support at $22.40. This is an important level to watch out for because if it cracks, the selling could intensify and the pair may drop to $18.

On the upside, if bulls drive the price above $40, the pair could retest the all-time high at $45.01. A breakout and close above this level could signal the resumption of the uptrend.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Cross-chain bridge equipped altcoins rally higher despite China’s crypto ban

REN, CELR and CVC ignore the market’s bearish reaction to China’s new crypto ban by posting double-digit gains.

The bullish momentum that had been growing across the cryptocurrency ecosystem over the past few days came to a screeching halt on Sept. 24 as news that China had banned cryptocurrency transactions made the rounds on social media and initiated an abrupt fall in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) from $45,000 to $42,000. 

After the initial knee-jerk reaction and a brief period of time for the market to digest the news, traders jumped back in to buy the dips on several altcoins, which helped some of the losses seen earlier in the day.

Top 7 coins with the highest 24-hour price change. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that three of the biggest gainers over the past 24-hours were Ren (REN), Celer Network (CELR) and Civic (CVC).

Ren brings DAI and BTC to Arbitrum

Ren is a blockchain protocol that focuses on facilitating interoperability and liquidity transfer between different blockchain networks through a series of darknodes that help to protect user privacy.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, market conditions for REN have been favorable for some time.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. REN price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for REN was in the green zone for the majority of the past week and hit a high of 81 on Sept. 21, around two hours before the price increased 58% over the next three days.

The positive momentum for REN has come as the protocol has launched wrapped forms of Bitcoin and DAI on the Ethereum (ETH) layer-two solution Arbitrum.

Celer Network releases cBridge 2.0

The Celer Network is another Ethereum layer-two scaling solution that has been gaining momentum in recent weeks thanks to its ability to lower transaction costs through the use of off-chain transaction handling, which helps to increase the scalability and the transaction throughput of its network.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for CELR on Sept. 20, prior to the recent price rise.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. CELR price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for CELR climbed into the green on Sept. 18 and reached a high of 74 on Sept. 20, around 26 hours before its price began to increase by 99% over the next three days.

The increase in price and demand for CELR has come following the launch of its cBridge 2.0 cross-chain token bridge that facilitates the transfer of assets between multiple blockchain protocols, including Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain and Arbitrum.

Related: Diminishing returns: Is Bitcoin underperforming compared to altcoins?

Civic partners with Solrise Finance

Civic is a protocol focused on providing a blockchain-based identity management solution capable of satisfying Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements from regulators while also protecting the data and privacy of users on the network.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for CVC on Sept. 21, prior to the recent price rise.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. CVC price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for CVC began to pick up on Sept. 21 and reached a high of 74 around eight hours before its price increased by 45% over the next two days.

The boost in momentum for Civic comes following the Sept. 23 announcement that the protocol has partnered with Solrise Finance to help launch the first permissioned decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.879 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Derivatives data favors Ethereum bulls even with this week’s crash below $3K

Losing the $3,000 mark just days before Friday’s $1.55 billion ETH options expiry nearly doomed Ether longs, but derivatives data shows bulls are still in favor.

Ether (ETH) has been in a bearish trend since early September, and this week’s Evergrande-led market crash drove the price below $2,700 on Sept.20, its lowest level in 47 days. Curiously, just three weeks ago, Ether was testing the $4,000 psychological barrier, but this changed after mounting crypto regulatory concerns and the fear of China’s debt markets triggering a global sell-off intensified.

This week United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler spoke to the Washington Post about renewed plans to regulate the crypto sector and the growing stablecoin market.

Ether’s negative price trend reversed on Sept. 22 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the continuation of the central bank’s monthly bond purchasing program. Powell also made clear that no interest rate hike should be expected in 2021.

Ether price at Bitstamp in USD. Source: TradingView

Even though the current $3,000 level represents a 25% retraction from the recent $4,000 peak, Ether price still reflects a 215% gain in 2021 and the network’s adjusted total value locked (TVL) jumped from $13 billion in 2020 to $60 billion, signaling strong adoption despite surging gas fees.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 24. Source: Bybt.com

As shown above, bulls got caught by surprise because 72% of call (buy) instruments were placed at $3,200 or higher. Consequently, if Ether remains below that price on Friday, only $260 million worth of neutral-to-bullish call options will be activated on the expiry.

A call option is a right to sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price on the set expiry date. Thus, a $3,200 cut option becomes worthless if Ether remains below that price at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 24.

Bulls still have an advantage in Friday’s $1.55 billion expiry

The 1.48 call-to-put ratio represents the difference between the $920 million worth of call (buy) options versus the $620 million put (sell) options. This bird’s eye view begs a more detailed analysis because some bets are far-fetched considering the current $3,000 level.

Below are the four most likely scenarios considering the current Ether price. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit from the expiry. The data below shows how many contracts will be activated on Friday, depending on the ETH price:

  • Between $2,700 and $2,900: 61,900 calls vs. 72,000 puts. The net result is $27 million favoring the protective put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $2,900 and $3,000: 79,900 calls vs. 52,200 puts. The net result is $80 million favoring the call (bull) options.
  • Between $3,000 and $3,200: 82,500 calls vs. 37,300 puts. The net result is $136 million favoring the call (bull) options.
  • Above $3,200: 99,600 calls vs. 20,200 puts. The net result favors the call options by $255 million.

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish strategies and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors typically use more complex strategies that involve different expiry dates. Moreover, there is no way to know if the arbitrage desks are fully hedged.

To win, bears need to keep Ether below $2,900

These two competing forces will show their strength, and the bears will try to minimize the damage. On the other hand, the bulls have decent control over the situation if the Ether price remains above $3,000.

The most important test will be the $2,900 level because bears have significant incentives to suppress the price at this level, even if momentarily. Although there’s still room for additional volatility ahead of the expiry, the bulls seem to be better positioned.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bulls make a run on $45K after Twitter debuts crypto tipping

Bitcoin price rallied to $44,800 and takes aim at flipping the $45,000 level to support shortly after Twitter launched a new crypto tipping service.

Bullish optimism is on the rise across the cryptocurrency market on Sept. 23 as prices continue to recover from this week’s volatility which was the result of regulatory pressure on the crypto sector, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the Fed’s interest rate hikes and monetary policy, along with fears that the Evergrande situation would ripple out to impact global financial markets.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after trading in a range between $43,000 and $44,300 during the early trading hours on Sept. 23, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $44,800 in the early afternoon and now takes aim at flipping the $45,000 resistance level into support.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The timing of the spike in BTC price aligns closely with Twitter’s announcement that users will now be able to tip other users with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin thanks to an integration with Strike, a payment application built on the Lightning network that enables low-cost Bitcoin transactions.

This development came as the momentum across the cryptocurrency ecosystem was already on the rise with the top altcoin Ether (ETH) back above $3,100. Data also shows that the Ether balance held in reserves on major cryptocurrency exchanges has reached an all-time low.

Altcoins fully rebound

The altcoin market is firing on all cylinders as competition in the layer-one field heats up with projects like Terra (LUNA), Avalanche (AVAX) and Cosmos (ATOM) making gains in terms of price and attracting new users thanks to lower-cost transactions and faster processing times.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Celer (CELR) is the top gainer on the 24-hour after seeing its price spike by 52% to a new all-time high at $0.14, while Celo (CELO) has put on a 24% gain and trades at $7.80.

Other notable performances include a 23% gain for COTI, a 21% gain for Tezos (XTZ) and a 20% rally from Origin Trail (TRAC).

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.999 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Here’s why Avalanche, OriginTrail and Coti hardly budged as Bitcoin fell to $40K

Market corrections are scary, but savvy altcoin traders also know it is an opportunity to secure hefty gains — here’s how.

Admittedly, the last few days have not been not the most pleasant time for crypto traders as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) price fell short of breaking the $50,000 threshold, then slid to the low-$40,000 range and pulled the majority of altcoins down with it.

Despite this sharp downturn, a handful of tokens seemed to do much better than the rest of the market by posting weekly gains in their BTC and U.S. dollar-denominated pairs.

Some traders looking to rack up their Bitcoin holdings cannot be bothered to follow an altcoins’ price dynamics against the dollar. For them, BTC slumps like the recent one can be seen as a profit opportunity, but how does one tell what coins are likely to perform well when BTC is on its way down?

AVAX: Powered by the news

Avalanche (AVAX) has added 28.19% in its dollar pair and 43.46% against BTC over the past week. Furthermore, on Sept. 17, the price of AVAX rose from 128,600 satoshis (sats) to 153,600 sats on the news of a partnership between the Avalanche Foundation and DeFi liquidity hub Kyber Network.

AVAX price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As AVAX’s price was coming down from this first peak, the pattern of market and social conditions around the asset’s price movement, trading volume, tweet volume and sentiment began to strongly resemble the patterns observed in previous dramatic price increases.

This was indicated by the coin’s algorithmic VORTECS™ Score — an indicator exclusively available to CT Markets Pro subscribers — going above 80, which can be seen on the dark green line marked by a red circle on the chart.

Scores of 80 and above indicate the model’s high confidence that the pattern is consistent.

Indeed, several hours after the VORTECS™ Score line had turned dark green, AVAX’s rally resumed. It was undercut by the market-wide slump in the early hours of Sept. 20, but the token’s individual bullish momentum was so strong that it rebounded in less than a day, trading at 156,900 sats on Sept. 22.

TRAC: A long turnaround

In the last seven days, OriginTrail’s Trace (TRAC) token has been up 6.02% against the U.S. dollar and 18.11% against Bitcoin.

TRAC price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

On Sept. 16, social and market variables around TRAC formed a historically favorable arrangement, and the coin’s VORTECS™ Score reached the value of 85 against the price of 852 sats. The algorithm is trained to detect conditions that have consistently preceded previous rallies by 12 to 72 hours, so sometimes price movement action can come days after a favorable score is registered.

This turned out to be the case with TRAC’s price action this week. Roughly 70 hours after the peak VORTECS™ Score showed up, the coin soared from 740 to 1088 sats in 24 hours. The Sept. 20 market flash crash took its toll on TRAC, but it recovered quicker and harder than most and secured positive weekly returns against both BTC and the dollar.

COTI: Enough momentum to weather the storm

COTI generated an extra 12.55% against the dollar and 26.51% versus BTC this past week.

COTI price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

The coin’s VORTECS™ Score briefly went beyond 80 briefly on Sept. 17 in the middle of a rally that took it from 668 to 926 Sats. COTI’s momentum began to recede before the Sept. 20 rout, with the asset trading at around 800 sats early that day. Yet, the robust market and social outlook detected earlier ensured that the asset’s recovery was smooth: The coin recouped much of the losses over the next two days.

While the VORTECS™ Score is by no means a prediction of future price movement, it can alert investors to historical trends that can be profitably incorporated into a trading strategy. 

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risks including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.

Crypto markets soar after Fed commits to printing and Evergrande plans to pay its debt

The crypto market staged a roaring comeback after Evergrande makes a deal to pay its debts and the Fed signals a continuation of its current monetary policy.

The cryptocurrency ecosystem is showing signs of a recovery on Sept. 22 following a 48-hour corrective stint which saw Bitcoin and altcoins sell-off to their swing lows. Equities and crypto investors were clearly worried about the possible bankruptcy of China’s Evergrande real estate firm and many feared that the possible default could spark a global decline in financial markets.

These concerns were temporarily put to rest after the real estate firm was able to come to an agreement with bondholders and avoid defaulting on its obligations technically, and this helped to spark a recovery across the cryptocurrency market that lifted Bitcoin (BTC) to a daily high at $44,000.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that since reaching a low of $39,572 on the evening hours of Sept. 21, Bitcoin price rebounded by 11.3% to an intraday high at $44,021 and the asset trades near $43,400 at the time of writing.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The midday spike in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) came following comments from United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who explained that the central bank plans to continue its current level of monthly bond purchases for the foreseeable future. Powell also signaled that a hike in interest rates could come as soon as 2022.

The crypto market pushes back against regulatory headwinds

Aside from the developments related to Evergrande, recent comments from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler have also been weighing heavily on the markets because the regulator re-emphasized plans to direct the SEC to crack down on cryptocurrencies and the growing stablecoin market.

The bearish market conditions that followed these comments have all but dissipated on Wednesday as a market-wide recovery began to take shape following comments from the Fed continued into the afternoon, and were led by Bitcoin’s recovery to $44,000 support and Ether’s (ETH) rally to $3,000.

Evidence of the wider impact that Evergrande and regulatory concerns have had on the market is reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed index, which is once again registering extreme fear after being at neutral the week prior and in the extreme greed zone in the month of August.

Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative

Related: Altcoins see a 35% bounce after Bitcoin reclaims $43,000

Green shoots populate the altcoin market

The turnaround in the market on Sept. 22 has helped to boost the price of most of the top 200 cryptocurrencies, with the exception of stablecoins, which were in the red as traders look to get off the sidelines and open new positions.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Enzyme (MLN), an Ethereum-based decentralized finance protocol is the top gainer at the time of writing, trading at a price of $160.30 after increasing 32% in the past 24 hours. COTI also gained 21% and trades at $0.385.

Other notable performances include a 22% increase for Arweave (AR) and a 21% increase in the price of Perpetual Protocol (PERP). 

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.947 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Altcoins see a 35% bounce after Bitcoin reclaims $43,000

LPT, COTI and AXS lead altcoins higher after ETH hits $3,000 and Bitcoin bulls take control of $43,000.

The sharp correction that threatened to pull Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin prices back toward their swing lows appears to have dissipated now that Evergrande has informed investors that it intends to make an on-time payment on its debt. With global markets feeling reassured, major equities, Bitcoin and altcoins prices all saw a rebound at the market open.

After a swift drop below $40,000 on Sept. 21, Bitcoin (BTC) now trades above $43,300 and Ether (ETH) has reclaimed the $3,000 level. Altcoins have also seen a strong recovery, with many posting up to 15% gains at the time of writing.

Top 7 coins with the highest 24-hour price change. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the biggest gainers over the past 24 hours were Livepeer (LPT), COTI (COTI) and Axie Infinity (AXS).

Livepeer lists on the Web3 Index

Livepeer is an Ethereum-based decentralized video streaming network that aims to be an alternative to traditional broadcasting solutions.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for LPT on Sept. 21, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. LPT price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for LPT began to pick up on Sept. 20 and reached a high of 71 on Sept. 21, around 19 hours before the price spiked by 36% over the next day.

The jump in price for LPT comes following the launch of the Web3 Index which included Livepeer as one of the initial projects, helping to boost the visibility for the project.

COTI’s treasury releases its ‘tech’ whitepaper

COTI, an enterprise-grade fintech platform focused on decentralized payments, is the second-largest gainer of the past 24 hours.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for COTI on Sept. 21, prior to the recent price rise.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. COTI price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for COTI climbed into the green on Sept. 21 and reached a high of 77 around 10 hours before the price spiked by 35% over the next day.

The recovery in the price of COTI comes following the release of the COTI treasury technological whitepaper and the token’s listing on Crypto.com.

Related: Avalanche recovers from Evergrande-led sell-off as AVAX rebounds over 30%

Axie Infinity rebounds after a prolonged downtrend

Axie Infinity (AXS) is a blockchain-based, play-to-earn trading and battling game where users collect, breed, raise and battle in-game token-based creatures known as Axies.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, market conditions for AXS have been favorable for some time.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. AXS price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for AXS was in the green zone for the majority of the past week and reached a peak of 82 on Sept. 20, around 24 hours before its price climbed 33% over the next day.

The jump in price for AXS followed the token’s listing on Bitfinex, an announcement that was registered by the Cointelegraph Markets Pro ‘NewsQuakes™’ alert system around 15 hours before its price began to rise.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.921 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.3%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Avalanche recovers from Evergrande-led sell-off as AVAX rebounds over 30%

The sharp bounce back in the Avalanche market still faces risks of exhaustion as the price forms a bearish wedge setup.

Avalanche (AVAX) prices recovered on Sept. 22, paring a portion of losses that hit cryptocurrencies at the beginning of this week, led by worries about potential contagion in China’s housing market.

The AVAX/USD exchange rate surged by as much as 12.05% to log an intraday high at $66.08. The pair’s gains came as a part of an interim rebound that started Tuesday after it bottomed out at a local low of $50.68. As a result, AVAX’s net rebound stretched by up to 30.37%.

Cointelegraph’s VORTECS™ Score also flipped bullish ahead of the Avalanche token rally. 

AVAX price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

The VORTECS™ Score is an algorithmic indicator comparing historical market and social conditions around each coin to those currently observed. Exclusively available to subscribers of Cointelegraph Markets Pro, each asset’s VORTECS™ Score indicates whether the present combination of the coin’s market and social metrics is historically bullish, bearish or neutral.

As shown in the chart above, the asset’s VORTECS™ line turned green (corresponding to values above 66) on Sept. 22 against a price of $61.22. Later, AVAX logged sizable gains.

Avalanche raises $250 million

On Monday, the Avalanche token’s price had fallen by 18.18% to $57.34. Its losses imitated concerns across the global market as investors weighed the downside risks coming from the Evergrande debt crisis. As a result, all the major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), fell in sync with global stock bourses.

The performance of top 15 crypto tokens on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe. Source: TradingView

The bearish shock in the Avalanche market came despite its healthy fundamentals. In detail, AVAX/USD had surged to a new record high at $77.37 on Binance on Sunday, days after raising $230 million in an AVAX sales round led by Polychain and Three Arrows Capital.

Avalanche’s funding came against the backdrop of top rival Ethereum’s ongoing network issues, including bandwidth congestion and higher transaction fees. The young blockchain project, which claims to process over 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) compared to Ethereum’s 13 TPS, already has more than 270 projects building atop its public ledger, including Tether, SushiSwap, Chainlink, Circle and The Graph.

“AVAX aims at a new price discovery above $100 in the medium to long term,” said Gustavo De La Torre, Business Development Director at N.exchange, in a statement to Cointelegraph.

“The growth potential can be supported by the fundamental utility, which presents it as a major competitor to the Ethereum blockchain as a smart contract hub.”

Bearish technicals

Despite its recovery, the AVAX/USD rate rally may reach a point of exhaustion as it forms a textbook bearish pattern.

Dubbed as a rising wedge, the structure appears when the price consolidates between upward sloping support and resistance trendlines looking to converge at a later point. Rising wedges are usually bearish reversal patterns, with price targets located at a length equal to the structure’s maximum height.

Related: DeFi platform Vee Finance exploited for $35M on Avalanche blockchain

Avalanche prices appear to have been fluctuating inside a rising wedge pattern. As a result, the maximum net distance between the structure’s upper and lower trendline comes to be $19.51. 

AVAX/USD daily price chart featuring rising wedge setup. Source: TradingView

Depending on the breakout point, the AVAX/USD wedge target could be $19.51. The chart above assumes two breakout levels based on their historical significance as support and resistance. As a result, Avalanche risks falling anywhere between $42.30 and $58.69 in the coming sessions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Pundits say crashing floor prices and sell volume signal that ‘the NFT market has died’

High-profile NFT sales have dominated the headlines, but the deeper analysis shows that most NFTs are worthless and that the market is highly illiquid.

Nonfungible tokens (NFTs) dominated crypto and mainstream media headlines all throughout 2021 as investors who held CryptoPunks and other projects minted prior to 2018 were finally rewarded for their patience. Meanwhile, newer projects like the Bored Ape Yacht Club and Art Blocks Curated saw some of their rarer pieces sell for millions of dollars. 

Despite the million-dollar sales for select one-of-a-kind NFTs and the record-breaking sell volumes on marketplaces like OpenSea, data shows that a majority of the lower-priced NFTs and lesser-known projects in the market do not accrue value and this means that the sector is rather illiquid. Using data from OpenSea, a recent report from Bloomberg found that 73.1% of NFT assets had only one transaction in the past 90 days.

The number of transactions for assets on OpenSea. Source: Bloomberg

The data is concerning, given that investors looking to buy NFTs on average pay well above $100 to mint a new NFT and cover the gas needed to transfer the asset.

In comments to Bloomberg, Gauthier Zuppinger, the COO of Nonfungible, said that “maybe 90% of collections minted today are totally useless and meaningless.”

Regarding ‘successful’ NFT investing, Zuppinger:

“Ninety-nine percent is about being in the right circle, having the right information at the right time. In the NFT space, you live with this constant frustration that you have missed a chance to make $1 billion.”

Related: Sorare scores $680M funding led by SoftBank to grow its NFT sport portfolio

‘The NFT market has died’

Further evidence that the NFT sector has cooled off significantly from its August highs can be found in the number of sales being transacted on marketplaces.

Number of NFT sales. Source: Nonfungible

According to data from Nonfungible, the number of daily sales across all NFT marketplaces has declined from a high of 138,109 on Aug. 30 to 42,372 on Sept. 21.

A similar chart pattern is seen across multiple NFT marketplace metrics including the dollar value of sales completed, active market wallets, primary market sales, secondary market sales, unique buyers and unique sellers.

These market developments caught the attention of podcast host and Twitter user Dennis Porter, who thinks the latest data coming out of the NFT space suggests that “the NFT market has died.”

For the activity that is still occurring in the market, “the most actively traded 3% of collections accounted for 97% of all dollar volume,” according to Bloomberg, suggesting that the NFT market is behaving a lot like the wider altcoin market where a small percentage of the tokens receive a majority of the trading volume.

Overall, these developments suggest that the most recent bull cycle for the NFT sector could be coming to an end and that it could take some time before the liquidity in the NFT market sees a meaningful increase, especially with the recent downturn in the wider market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum’s spot setup looks grim, but derivatives data tells a different story

Ether price is stuck in a rut, but derivatives data shows pro traders are bullish even with ETH below $3,000.

Ether (ETH) price fell below the $3,000 support on Sept. 20 as global markets entered a risk-aversion mode. The Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) closed down 4.2%, while the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) lost 3.8%.

Some analysts pointed to the potential ripple effects of the default of Evergrande, a major Chinese real estate company. In contrast, others blame the ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington as the catalyst for this week’s volatility. As a result, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), usually referred to as the “stock market fear index,” jumped by more than 30% to reach its highest level since May.

On Sept.19, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling again in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Yellen suggested that avoiding this would risk causing the government to default on payments and generate a “widespread economic catastrophe.”

One of the major focuses for traditional markets is this week’s U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which ends on Sept. 22. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to signal when it will cut back its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program.

How these events impact Ether price

Ether price in USD at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView

Even though the $3,000 level sits near the bottom range of the previous performance of the past 45 days, Ether still accumulated 210% gains in 2021. The network’s adjusted total value locked (TVL) jumped from $13 billion in 2020 to $60 billion and the decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming and nonfungible token (NFT) sectors experienced an impressive surge while Ethereum maintained dominance of the sector’s market share.

Despite mean gas fees surpassing $20 in September, Ethereum has kept roughly 60% of the decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. Its largest competitor, Binance Smart Chain, held an average daily volume slightly below $1 billion, albeit having a transaction fee below $0.40.

Ether futures data shows pro traders are still bullish

Ether’s quarterly futures are the preferred instruments of whales and arbitrage desks due to their settlement date and the price difference from spot markets. However, the contract’s biggest advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. Therefore, futures should trade at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. This situation is technically defined as “contango” and is not exclusive to crypto markets.

ETH futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

As displayed above, Ether’s futures contracts premium spiked to 15% on Sept. 6 as ETH price tested the $4,000 resistance. Apart from that brief overshot, the basis indicator ranged from 8% to 12% over the past month, considered healthy and bullish.

The crash to sub-$3,000 in the early hours of Sept. 21 was not enough to scare seasoned traders. More importantly, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler’s interview on cryptocurrency regulation also had no noticeable impact on Ether price. Had there been a generalized fear, Ether futures premium would have reflected this.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.