BTC Markets

‘Extreme fear’ grips Bitcoin price, but analysts point to signs of a potential reversal

Sideways crypto price action persists as the Federal Reserve confirms its plan to continue raising interest rates, but analysts spot a silver lining.

The cryptocurrency market settled into a holding pattern on May 25 after traders opted to sit on the sidelines ahead of the midday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to continue on its path of raising interest rates. According to data from Alternative.me, the Fear and Greed Index is seeing its longest run of extreme fear since the market crash in Mach 2020.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price action for Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to compress into an increasingly narrow trading range, but technical analysis indicators are not providing much insight on what direction a possible breakout could take.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what analysts think could come next for Bitcoin price.

Whales accumulate as Bitcoin battles to reclaim $30,000

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Twitter

According to market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, “#Bitcoin broke through $29.4K and ran towards the next resistance zone. If we hold $29.4K, we’ll be good towards $32.8K. Finally.”

One interesting thing to note at these price levels is that while the predominant sentiment is that of extreme fear, on-chain intelligence firm Santiment pointed out that whale wallets have taken this as an opportunity to accumulate some well-priced BTC.

Bitcoin price vs. supply distribution. Source: Santiment

Santiment said:

“As #Bitcoin continues treading water at $29.6K, the amount of key whale addresses (holding 100 to 1k $BTC) continues rising after the massive dumping from late January. We’ve historically seen a correlation between price & this tier’s address quantity.”

Price could still pull back to $22,500

A macro perspective on how Bitcoin performs following the appearance of a death cross was offered by pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart outlining what to expect if the “historical price tendencies relating to the #BTC Death Cross repeat […]”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Rekt Capital said:

“$BTC will breakdown from the Macro Range Low support & continue its drop to complete -43% downside. The -43% mark is confluent with the 200-Week MA at ~$22500.”

Related: Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

“A pivotal retest”

The importance of the current price level for Bitcoin was touched upon by economist Caleb Franzen, who posted the following chart looking at the long-term performance of BTC versus its weekly anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), noting that “This is a pivotal retest, similar to the dynamics in March 2022.”

BTC/USD vs AVWAP 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Franzen said:

“A rebound on the weekly AVWAP from the COVID low could increase bullish probabilities. A breakdown below it would drastically increase bearish probabilities, foreshadowing a retest of the grey range, $13.8k-19.8k.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.265 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.8%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Crypto funds under management drop to a low not seen since July 2021

Outflows from digital asset funds reached $141 million last week, a figure not seen since July 2021.

Digital asset investment products saw $141 million in outflows during the week ending on May 20, a move that reduced the total assets under management (AUM) by institutional funds down to $38 billion, the lowest level since July 2021. 

According to the latest edition of CoinShare’s weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report, Bitcoin (BTC) was the primary focus of outflows after experiencing a decline of $154 million for the week. The removal of funds coincided with a choppy week of trading that saw the price of BTC oscillate between $28,600 and $31,430.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Despite the sizable outflow, the month-to-date BTC flow for May remain positive at $187.1 million, while the year-to-date figure stands at $307 million.

On a more positive note, the multi-asset category of investment products managed to record a total of $9.7 million worth of inflows last week. This brings the yearly total inflow into these products to $185 million, representing 5.3% of the total AUM.

CoinShares pointed to the uptick in volatility as a possible source for the increased inflows into multi-asset investment products, which can be seen as “safer relative to single line investment products during volatile periods.” So far in 2020, these investment products have only experienced two weeks of outflows.

Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) led the altcoin inflows with increases of $1 million each, followed by $700,000 worth of inflows into Ripple (XRP) and $500,000 into Solana (SOL).

Flows by asset during the week ending May 20, 2022. Source: CoinShares

Out of all the assets covered, Ethereum (ETH) has seen the worst performance so far this year with $44 million worth of outflows in the month of May bringing its year-to-date figure to $239 million.

Related: Bitcoin’s current setup creates an interesting risk-reward situation for bulls

Strengthening dollar continues to impact crypto market sentiment

The declining interest in digital asset investment products comes amid the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, which has been “one of the most important macro factors driving asset prices over the last six months,” according to cryptocurrency market intelligence firm Delphi Digital.

U.S. dollar currency index. 1-week chart. Source: Delphi Digital

As shown on the chart above, the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen from 95 at the start of 2022 to 102 on May 23, a year-to-date gain of 6.8%. This marks the fastest year-over-year change for the DXY in recent history and led to a breakout from the range it had been stuck in for the past seven-years.

Delphi Digital said,

“This DXY strength has been a consistent drag to risk asset performances over this same time period.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Contrarian Bitcoin investors identify buy zones even as extreme fear grips the market

A popular BTC price metric points to “extreme fear” in the market, but contrarian investors say multiple on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is in buy territory.

Bitcoin (BTC) support at the $30,000 level has proven to be quite resilient amid the turmoil of the past two weeks, with many tokens in the top 100 now showing signs of consolidation after prices bounced off their recent lows.

Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

During high volatility and sell-offs, it’s difficult to take a contrarian view, and traders might consider putting some distance from all the noise and negative news flow to focus on their core convictions and reason for originally investing in Bitcoin.

Several data points suggest that Bitcoin could be approaching a bottom which is expected to be followed by a lengthy period of consolidation. Let’s take a look at what experts are saying.

BTC may have already reached “max pain”

The spike in realized losses by Bitcoin holders was touched on by Root, a pseudonymous analyst, who tweeted the following chart and said realized losses are “reaching bear market highs.”

Bitcoin realized profit/loss. Source: Twitter

While previous bear markets have seen a greater level of realized losses than are currently present, they also suggest that the pain could soon begin to subside, which would allow Bitcoin to begin the slow path to recovery.

Analysts have also pointed out that “Bitcoin’s RSI is now entering a period that has historically preceded outsized returns on investment for long-term investors.”

BTC/USD RSI. Source: Twitter

According to Rekt Capital:

“Previous reversals from this area include January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020. All bear market bottoms.”

Strong hands hold firm

Additional on-chain evidence that Bitcoin may soon see a revival was provided by Jurrien Timmer, Global Director of Macro at Fidelity. According to the Bitcoin Dormancy Flow, a metric that displays the dormancy flow for Bitcoin that “roughly speaking is a measure of strong vs. weak hands.”

Bitcoin dormancy flow. Source: Twitter

Timmer said:

“The entity-adjusted dormancy flow from Glassnode is now at the lowest level since the 2014 and 2018 lows.”

One metric that suggests that the weak hands may be nearing capitulation is the Advanced NVT signal, which looks at the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) and includes standard deviation (SD) bands to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold.

Advanced NVT signal. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

As shown on the chart above, the advanced NVT signal, which is highlighted in light blue, is now more than 1.2 standard deviations below the mean, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently oversold.

Previous instances of the NVT signal falling below the -1.2 SD level have been followed by increases in the price of BTC, although it can sometimes take several months to manifest.

Related: Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycle

Hash rate hits a new all-time high

Aside from complex on-chain metrics, there are several other factors that suggest Bitcoin could see a boost in momentum in the near future.

Data from Glassnode shows that the hashrate for the Bitcoin network is now at an all-time high, indicating that there has been a substantial increase in investments in mining infrastructure with the most growth happening in the United States.

Bitcoin mean hash rate vs. BTC price. Source: Glassnode

Based on the chart above, the price of BTC has historically trended higher alongside increases in the mean hash rate, suggesting that BTC could soon embark on an uptrend.

One final bit of hope can be found looking at the Google Trends data for Bitcoin, which notes a spike in search interest following the recent market downturn.

Interest in searching for Bitcoin over time. Source: Google Trends

Previous spikes in Google search interest have largely coincided with an increase in the price of Bitcoin, so it’s possible that BTC could at least see a relief bounce in the near future if sidelined investors see this as an opportunity to scoop up some Satoshis at a discount.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycle

Traders still anticipate BTC prices above $100,000, but a closer look at the BTC halving cycle chart suggests that a sharper downside move will occur first.

Terra’s (LUNA) recent collapse has been repeatedly singled out as the main source of weakness affecting crypto assets. Still, it’s much more likely that a combination of factors is behind the start of this current bear market.

At the same time that the market was reeling from the Terra saga, the two-year mark for the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving was also crossed and this is a metric some analysts have used as an indicator for the end of a bull market.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

As shown on the chart above, previous cycles have seen BTC hit a peak followed by a price decline that first drops below the 50-day moving average (MA) then a culminating capitulation event that thrusts the price below the 200-day MA.

Many traders were thrown off by the lack of a blow-off top in the most recent bull market cycle because this phenomenon has typically marked the late stage of an exhausted trend.

Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to hit $100,000 before the end of 2021.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

During previous market cycles, BTC was trading well above the S2F model at this stage in its progression with the model variance in the positive. Currently, the model variance is giving a reading of -0.86 while the price of BTC is well below the S2F line.

This lack of a blow-off top has prompted some traders to stand by earlier calls for one final price run-up that will see BTC hit $100,000 before entering an extended bear market, but that remains to be seen.

Maybe the market will bottom in November?

While some still hold out hope for one last hoorah before the bear market really sets in, a more pessimistic view is predicting another si months of price decline before the market hits a bottom.

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Based on previous cycles, the low in the market came roughly 13 months after the market top, which would suggest a bottom sometime around December of this year if the current trend holds.

This is further validated when looking at the time between a market bottom and the next Bitcoin halving event.

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

During the previous cycles, each cycle low was hit roughly 17 to18 months before the next halving. The next BTC halving is predicted to occur on May 5, 2024, which would suggest that that the market will bottom in November or December of 2022. 

Related: Bitcoin is discounted near its ‘realized’ price, but analysts say there’s room for deep downside

Traders are still permabulls despite the current price action

As far as price predictions go, there is far less consensus on this matter due to BTC’s underperformance during the last cycle where most traders were expecting $100,000.

Traders continue to call for BTC to the surpass $100,000 mark in the not-too-distant future and a handful are holding on to the penultimate $1 million target.

Bitcoin price prediction chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

A general range of possible prices outlined by LookIntoBitcoins’ price prediction tool suggests a BTC high of $238,298, while the delta top indicator indicates a high of $119,886. The terminal price indicator is currently providing a price prediction at $107,801.  

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin is discounted near its ‘realized’ price, but analysts say there’s room for deep downside

On-chain data suggests Bitcoin price is discounted, but analysts caution against expecting a rapid recovery.

There are early signs of the “dust settling” in the crypto market now that investors believe that the worst of the Terra (LUNA) collapse looks to be over. Viewing Bitcoin’s chart indicates that while the fallout was widespread and quite devastating for altcoins, BItcoin (BTC) has actually held up fairly well. 

Even with the May 12 drop to $26,697 marking the lowest price level since 2020 multiple metrics suggest that the current levels could represent a good entry to BTC. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The pullback to this level is notable in that it was a retest of Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $26,990. According to cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, this metric has historically “served as a key area for prior price bottoms.”

BTC/USD vs. 200-week EMA vs. 14-week RSI. Source: Delphi Digital

And it wasn’t just Bitcoin that had a rough day on May 12. The stablecoin market also saw its highest level of volatility and deviation from the dollar peg since the start of the Terra saga, with Tether (USDT) experiencing the largest deviation among the major stablecoin projects as shown in the chart below from blockchain data provider Glassnode.

Stablecoin prices during Terra’s meltdown. Source: Glassnode

All four of the top stablecoins by market cap have managed to return to within $0.001 of their dollar peg, but the confidence of crypto holders in their ability to hold has definitely been shaken by the events of the past two weeks.

Related: Do Kwon summoned to parliamentary hearing following UST and LUNA crash

Bitcoin approaches its realized price

As a result of the market pullback, the price of Bitcoin is now trading the closest it has been to its realized price since 2020.

Bitcoin realized price. Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, the realized price has historically “provided sound support during bear markets and has provided signals of market bottom formation when the market price trades below it.”

Previous bear markets saw the price of BTC trade below its realized price for extended periods of time, but the amount of time has actually decreased every cycle with Bitcoin only spending seven days below its realized price during the bear market of 2019–2020.

Days Bitcoin spent below its realized price during previous bear markets. Source: Glassnode

It remains to be seen if BTC will fall below the realized price should the current bear market conditions persist, and if so, how long it will last.

On-chain data shows that many crypto holders couldn’t resist the temptation of acquiring Bitcoin below $30,000, resulting in a spike in accumulation beginning on May 12 and continuing through May 15, but some analysts caution against taking this as a sign that a rapid recovery will occur from here.

This sentiment was echoed by Delphi Digital, which noted that “the longer we see price build in these areas, further continuation becomes more likely.”

Delphi Digital said,

“In the event this happens, look for the following levels: 1) Weekly structure and volume structure support at $22,000–$24,000; 2) 2017 all-time high retests of $19,000–$20,000.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price could bounce to $35K, but analysts say don’t expect a ‘V-shaped recovery’

Daily closes above $30,000 could be a sign that BTC price is ready to consolidate, but traders warn against “generational bottoms” and “V-shaped” recoveries.

Altcoins saw a relief bounce on May 13 as the initial panic sparked by Bitcoin’s sell-off TerraUSD (UST) collapse and multiple stablecoins losing their dollar peg begins to decrease. Risk-loving traders look to scoop up assets trading at yearly lows.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Despite the significant correction that occurred over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have managed to claw their way back to the $30,000 zone, a level that has been defended multiple times during the 2021 bull market.

Here’s a look at what several analysts have to say about the outlook for Bitcoin moving forward as the price attempts to recover in the face of multiple headwinds.

Is a short squeeze pending?

Insight into the minds of derivatives traders was provided by cryptocurrency analytics platform Coinalyze, which assessed Bitcoin’s long to short positions for BTC/USD perpetual contracts on ByBit.

BTC/USD perp 1-day chart vs. long/short BTC/USD accounts ratio. Source: Twitter

As shown in the lower half of the chart above, the interest in shorts, which is represented in red, has surged during the recent market downturn, indicating that derivatives traders expected more downside in the short term.

“The sentiment was very negative over the last few days, as seen in ByBit long/short ratio and funding rate. A short squeeze/bounce is expected,” Coinalyze founder Gabriel Dodan told Cointelegraph in private comments.

A short-term breakout to $35K is expected

Bitcoin’s dip to $26,716 on May 12 was notable in that it broke below the May 2021 low at $28,600, “which was seen as the last man standing for BTC,” according to David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha.

In Lifchitz’s view, the bounce seen on May 13 was to be expected, as “a lot of bad news had been flushed out” while the “panic move from the UST fiasco has already occurred.”

Bitcoin sitting at the May 2021 lows “seems like a good entry point here with a tight stop should the purge continue,” according to Lifchitz, but traders shouldn’t expect a return to $60,000 to happen overnight and instead should set a more modest short term target of $35,000.

Lifchitz said:

“Long at $28.5K/Stop at $26.5K/Profit target at $34.5K = $6K upside/$2K downside = 3/1 win/loss ratio and from an investment point of view, it looks compelling to me.”

Related: Buy the dip, or wait for max pain? Analysts debate whether Bitcoin price has bottomed

A V-shaped recovery is unlikely

Insight into what it would take for Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum was provided by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart noting that BTC “needs to keep $28,600 as support for the price to challenge $32,000,” while a “weekly close below the green would be bearish.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

While many optimistic traders are hoping for a rapid recovery from this latest downturn, Rekt Capital warned that “by standards of history, a sharp V-Shaped recovery to mark out a generational bottom is less likely.”

The analyst said:

“Many expect one as the previous March 2020 BTC bear market bottom was very volatile. But macro price history suggests extended ranges are more likely.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.287 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Buy the dip, or wait for max pain? Analysts debate whether Bitcoin price has bottomed

BTC is flashing a few early bottoming signals, but analysts question whether “buying the dip” is a wise maneuver given the strength of the dollar and other factors.

It has been a rough week for the cryptocurrency market, primarily because of the Terra ecosystem collapse and its knock-on effect on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and altcoin prices, plus the panic selling that took place after stablecoins lost their peg to the U.S. dollar.

The bearish headwinds for the crypto market have been building since late 2021 as the U.S. dollar gained strength and the United States Federal Reserve hinted that it would raise interest rates throughout the year.

According to a recent report from Delphi Digital, the 14-month RSI for the DXY has now “crossed above 70 for the first time since its late 2014 to 2016 run up.”

DXY index performance. Source: Delphi Digital

This is notable because 11 out of the 14 instances where this previously occurred “led to a stronger dollar ~78% of the time over the following 12 months,” which points to the possibility that the pain for assets could get worse.

On average, the DXY gained roughly 5.7% after its RSI rose above 70, which from May 13’s reading “would put the DXY Index just shy of 111, its highest level since 2002.”

BTC/USD vs. DXY Index (inverted) and a rolling 60-day correlation. Source: Delphi Digital

Delphi Digital said,

“Assuming the correlation between the DXY and BTC remains relatively strong, this would not be welcoming news for the crypto market.”

Bitcoin is at a key area for price bottoms

Taking a bigger picture approach, BTC is now retesting its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $26,990, which has “historically served as a key area for price bottoms” according to Delphi Digital.

BTC/USD vs. 200-week EMA vs. 14-week RSI. Source: Delphi Digital

Bitcoin is also continuing to hold above its long-term weekly support range of $28,000 to $30,000, which has proven to be a strong area of support throughout the recent market turmoil.

While many traders have been panic selling in recent days, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead has taken a contrarian approach, noting, “It’s best to buy when [the] price is well below trend. Now is one of those times.”

Bitcoin fund inflows relative to price trend. Source: Twitter

Morehead said,

“Bitcoin has been this “cheap” or cheaper relative to trend only 5% of time since Dec 2010. If you have the emotional and financial resources, go the other way.”

A word of caution was offered by Delphi Digital, however, which noted that “the best opportunities or “deals” in the market are not around for long.”

Since BTC has been trading in the $28,000 to $30,000 range for an extended period of time, “the longer we see price build in these areas, further continuation becomes more likely.”

If further decline occurs, the “weekly structure and volume structure support at $22,000 to $24,000” and the “2017 all-time high retests of $19,000 to $24,000” are the next major areas of support.

Delphi Digital said,

“Early signs of capitulation are starting to bleed through, but we can’t say we’re nearing the point of max pain just yet.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Altcoins stage a relief rally while Bitcoin traders decide whether to buy the dip

Stocks and altcoin prices bounced as the sell-off in BTC took a pause, but analysts continue to warn that further downside could occur shortly.

The similarity in price action between the crypto and traditional financial markets remains quite strong on May 10 as traders enjoyed a relief bounce across asset classes following the May 9 rout, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dip to $29,730.

Market downturns typically translate to heavier losses in altcoins due to a variety of factors, including thinly traded assets and low liquidity, but this also translates into larger bounces once a recovery ensues.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Several projects notched double-digit gains on May 10, including a 15.75% gain for Maker (MKR), the protocol responsible for issuing the DAI (DAI) stablecoin, which likely benefited from the fallout from Terra (LUNA) and its TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin.

Other notable gainers include Persistence (XPRT) and its liquid staking token pSTAKE (PSTAKE), which experienced gains of 16.4% and 39.8% after Binance Labs revealed a strategic investment in the liquid staking platform. Polygon (MATIC) also bounced back with a 14.59% gain.

Correlation with traditional markets remains

Despite the widely held belief that the crypto market would act as a hedge to TradFi volatility, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has remained high in 2022.

If anything, the volatility usually associated with the cryptocurrency market has begun to rear its ugly head in traditional markets, as evidenced by the price action for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on May 10, which rose more than 500 points only to give back at the time of writing.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fared a little better, notching gains of 0.9% and 1.92%, respectively.

Further evidence to support a correlation between crypto and traditional markets was provided by Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, who posted the following chart noting that “Fundamentals [are] taking a back seat to fear driven trading.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart vs. SPX 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Willy Woo said,

“What I do think is we are not trading BTC, we are trading macro and equities. Right pane is SPX support, which will determine BTC directionality, left pane is the equivalent BTC support.”

Related: Michael Saylor assuages investors after market slumps hurts $MSTR, $BTC

The S&P 500 could drop much further

While May 10’s relief rally sent crypto and stock prices higher, market analyst Caleb Franzen posted the following chart warning about a bearish head and shoulders formation on the S&P 500 chart that could result in the loss of another 500 points.

SPX/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Franzen said,

“Hard to pick downside targets after my $4,000 call got hit, but I think the MOST LIKELY support zone is down around $3,530–$3,590. This is the white resistance range from September–October 2020.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.444 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.5%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin retests key $30K support zone as data highlights BTC whale accumulation

Fear dominates the crypto market as BTC price trades near $30,000, but data suggests whales and momentum traders could be interested in accumulating in this zone.

Sentiment across the cryptocurrency market plunged even deeper on May 9 as an escalation in the ongoing sell-off intensified, with bears pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to $30,334, its lowest price since July 2021. 

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Multiple factors like rising interest rates, the end of easy money policies by the Federal Reserve, declining stock prices and concerns related to TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin maintaining its $1 peg are all impacting sentiment within the crypto market.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that an afternoon of heavy selling on May 9 hammered the price of BTC to a daily low of $30,334 as bulls frantically regrouped to defend the psychologically important $30,000 price level.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what several analysts are saying about the outlook for Bitcoin moving forward, along with some insight into how BTC whales are reacting to the recent price action.

Has a bear market started?

The possibility of a strong sell-off was discussed prior to Monday’s move by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Nunya Bizniz, who posted the following chart highlighting a possible zone of capitulation for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Nunya Bizniz said:

“This 8-yr parallel channel has four perfect touches. Will there be another capitulation spike low within the yellow circle, between red and blue, aligning with the prior all-time high?”

Based on the chart provided, the price of BTC could drop as low as $19,891 if such a scenario played out. 

In one way or another, what comes next for BTC is likely to ripple across the cryptocurrency market as the current streak of losses is nearing record-breaking territory, as noted by pseudonymous Twitter user “Bitcoin Archive.”

Bitcoin price is trading below its 2-year moving average

A more positive take on the recent weakness was offered by crypto analyst Philip Swift, who posted the following chart looking at the BTC price relative to its 2-year moving average (MA).

Bitcoin 2-year MA multiplier. Source: Twitter

The analyst said:

“It’s that time in the cycle again! Price has dropped below the 2yr MA. Accumulate.”

Related: Bitcoin price falls to $31K as traders prepare for a ‘rocky’ road and more downside

Whales wallets have been feasting

According to Twitter crypto analyst Akash, Bitcoin whales have been accumulating through the previous downturns and sideways price action. 

BTC price vs. wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC. Source: Twitter

Akash said:

“Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have been on a buying spree since April 30.”

While this data is encouraging on some levels, it’s important to remember that there are no guarantees against another trend change or further downside, and traders would be wise to assume nothing and take extra care to manage their risk moving forward.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.411 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.5%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price falls to $31K as traders prepare for a ‘rocky’ road and more downside

BTC price hits a 2022 low as on-chain data points toward capitulation by traders adopting a risk-off approach to crypto and stocks.

“When it rains, it pours” is an old saying finding new relevance in the cryptocurrency markets on May 9 as traders face another day of pain and the current price decline brings Bitcoin (BTC) to its lowest level in 2022

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC selloff on May 9 intensified as the trading day progressed with Bitcoin hitting a daily low of $31,000 as bulls scrambled to mount what amounted to a weak defense.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at some of the developments that led up to May 9’s price declines and what traders can look for as the crypto market heads deeper into bear territory. 

Further downside is a possibility

Bitcoin bulls have struggled to establish a solid floor of support over the past couple of months because bears have been persistent in their drive to push the price lower.

Currently, BTC price down 50% from its all-time high in November and on-chain analysis firm Glassnode noted in a recent report that this decline “remains modest when compared to the ultimate lows of prior Bitcoin bear markets.”

Bitcoin price drawdown from all-time highs. Source: Glassnode

As shown in the graphic above, the drawdown in July 2021 reached a peak of -54.2% while the “bear markets of 2015, 2018 and March 2020 capitulated at lows between -77.2% and -85.5% off the all-time high.”

Network profitability has also declined to levels that are similar to what was seen during the late-2018 and late 2019–2020 bear markets.

Bitcoin: Supply, entities and addresses in profit. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said,

“It should be noted that both instances were prior to the final capitulation flush out event. As such, further downside remains a risk, and would be within the realm of historical cycle performance.”

Traders are taking a risk-off approach

A deeper dive into the on-chain data shows that the capitulation by Bitcoin holders has intensified in recent weeks as the price has continued to trend lower.

Evidence for this capitulation can be found looking at the Bitcoin exchange fee dominance, which measures what percentage of the fees on the Bitcoin network was paid to deposit BTC to an exchange.

Bitcoin exchange fee dominance. Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, the sudden spike in the Bitcoin exchange fee dominance to 15.2% is the second-highest level in history and “further supports the case that Bitcoin investors were seeking to de-risk, sell and/or add collateral to margin in response to market volatility.”

Additional evidence of a rise in risk-off sentiment can be found looking at stablecoin supplies, which have declined over the past two months after increasing from $5.33 billion to $158.25 billion since the market selloff in March 2020.

After reaching a peak of $161.53 billion in early April, the aggregate stablecoin supply has declined by $3.285 billion as an uptick in redemptions of USD Coin (USDC) has outpaced inflows across all stablecoin tokens.

Aggregate stablecoin supply 30-day change. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said,

“Overall, there are a number of signals of net weakness in the space, many of which indicate that risk-off sentiment remains the core market position at this time.”

Related: Bitcoin sets new 2022 lows as analyst says trip to $24K realized price ‘entirely possible’

The possibility of holding above $30,000

The recent weakness across the market has led many crypto traders to flip bearish and accept the possibility of a decline to $28,000, which has started to pique the contrarian perspectives of some analysts including futures trader Peter Brandt, who posted the following tweet addressing the change in sentiment.

It remains to be seen what comes next for BTC, but it’s best to prepare for more volatility because macro global events continue to put pressure on financial markets.

Glassnode said,

“Bitcoin remains highly correlated to the broader economic conditions, which suggests the road ahead may unfortunately be a rocky one, at least for the time being.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.467 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.7%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.